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Allsnow

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Everything posted by Allsnow

  1. Allsnow
    Low around Erie helps also. Lots of overrunning snows this run for the area. Only negative it the high splits so we a bit of a southeast wind along the coast
  2. Allsnow
    This is definitely going to be a colder run then 06z. The storm blowing up beforehand help keeps the artic high in place.
  3. Allsnow
    12z gfs really blowing up the cutter for Thursday in New England. This should really help with confluence for Saturday.
  4. Allsnow
    Pretty far north. The front end is still there but the eps makes it more of a Saturday night event.
  5. Allsnow
    Some really nice trends with this over night. Last week I mentioned a possible overrunning threat around this timeframe. I can just see ch 7 news now, with the screen shot of last Saturday in the 70’s at Central Park compared to next Saturday in the snow lol.
  6. Allsnow
    No that’s not what he is saying. When you’re between phases you can still have effects of the previous phase. You can have a bit of lag
  7. Allsnow
    Next weekend is going to cut into the lakes. If we can get a cold high pressure with some cad perhaps it starts as some snow. I would keep expectations in check with that one. The better patterns starts after next weekend
  8. Allsnow
    Yep. We very well could swing and Miss. let’s hope for better luck this time. Last January we missed a storm to our south that crushed DCA.
  9. Allsnow
    Why would you be looking at the gfs that far out? It will change at 00z. You use the ensembles at that range. If it makes you feel better the euro has a costal snowstorm in that timeframe
  10. Allsnow
    Great to see both of you here! Hope all is well
  11. Allsnow
    I have provided proof with the roundy plots which you fail to acknowledge. I also have the ensembles all agreeing on a pattern change. Those plots you posted are off the GEFS and only going out to jan 16. So if the pattern is supposed to flip after the 20th what do they prove?
  12. Allsnow
    All we can say is the pattern looks to improve after the 20th. I get it, you can’t shovel potential! We very could score a nice storm or continue the bad luck. For us to get a storm we need a better pattern so we have that.
  13. Allsnow
    I’m not sure how many time it needs to be said that the rmm plots have a bias for cod at the end. Yet, he continues to rip and read them while they correct in front of him. This will be going 7-8-1-2. Yes, it will probably be muted in the colder phases as it’s not going to have strong amplitude like the warm phases. Even if that plot was to be correct, it would be bias cold because the mjo wave is closer to the cold phases.
  14. Allsnow
    We don’t need some uber -nao to trigger all the cold dry folks
  15. Allsnow
    My thoughts are it will be transient in nature but that’s all we really need to capitalize on something. The Scandinavian ridge is really a nice precursor to a -nao.
  16. Allsnow
    I didn’t think we would be this clear a few days ago. It’s really off to the races at this point. Out and about around town It feels like a April day.
  17. Allsnow
    Do you think this change is all from the mjo? My guess is yes, I don’t see why else would be changing the pac like this. Up to 62 here now! Models did a great job with the warmth.
  18. Allsnow
    Nice call @Isotherm! Looks like the Pv will start taking shots at the end of the month
  19. Allsnow
    Hard not to excited about this look on the GEFS and eps for after the 20th. +pna/-nao/ and trough axis over Chicago. Enjoy the warmth! Things are about to change
  20. Allsnow
    Torching here under clear sky’s. Pushing 60 already here. Get out and enjoy it!
  21. Allsnow
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  23. Allsnow
    The pattern change is all a result from the mjo. We won’t see help from the nao probably not until February if at all. The Ao will be around neutral at the end of the month. This is all from the +pna and -epo The eps had some transient blocking at the end of the month.
  24. Allsnow
    The pattern gets better after the 20th. We have a chance at a snow to rain type event next weekend. After that it looks stormy with cold around. But yes, if you’re looking for a classic snowstorm it will be after the 20th. Incredible agreement right now with all the ensembles on a +pna and -epo look.
  25. Allsnow
    Winners and losers in every storm. We haven’t had it bad in middlesex county since 2009. I’ll gladly take 4-8 over getting skunked completely
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