Jump to content

Allsnow

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    25,230

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Allsnow

  1. Allsnow
    It’s all about the forcing. It obviously something we won’t know until we get closer. I just checked the high strength for November 2018 it was 1035. This is supposed to be around 1040, so stronger currently. But 1035 is nothing to sneeze at. @snowman19 it’s one thing to be argumentative with facts it another to be argumentative just for the sake of it.
  2. Allsnow
    Why? Strong artic high with overrunning precipitation. We turned to rain in November 2018 also. The 10-1 maps are not grossly over done with the mid levels so cold beforehand. The kuchera maps are even snowier! Yes, lots of time left for this to go either way.
  3. Allsnow
    Nice thump on the cmc before the area goes to rain.
  4. Allsnow
    Nice 1044 high in southeast Canada on the cmc.
  5. Allsnow
    Yep. I know what the pretty snow maps are showing but keep expectations low. This is probably a 2-4 type deal along the coast with more north and west. Lots of time left so hopefully it trends better.
  6. Allsnow
    Yeah the high was stronger and further west. We need to root for a stronger storm in New England on Thursday.
  7. Allsnow
    4-8 thump for the area on the Gfs. It’s nice to see but keep expectations in check. Models have been horrible this winter and having a low in upstate ny isn’t ideal. It’s really all about that high pressure for the nyc metro.
  8. Allsnow
    Low around Erie helps also. Lots of overrunning snows this run for the area. Only negative it the high splits so we a bit of a southeast wind along the coast
  9. Allsnow
    This is definitely going to be a colder run then 06z. The storm blowing up beforehand help keeps the artic high in place.
  10. Allsnow
    12z gfs really blowing up the cutter for Thursday in New England. This should really help with confluence for Saturday.
  11. Allsnow
    Pretty far north. The front end is still there but the eps makes it more of a Saturday night event.
  12. Allsnow
    Some really nice trends with this over night. Last week I mentioned a possible overrunning threat around this timeframe. I can just see ch 7 news now, with the screen shot of last Saturday in the 70’s at Central Park compared to next Saturday in the snow lol.
  13. Allsnow
    No that’s not what he is saying. When you’re between phases you can still have effects of the previous phase. You can have a bit of lag
  14. Allsnow
    Next weekend is going to cut into the lakes. If we can get a cold high pressure with some cad perhaps it starts as some snow. I would keep expectations in check with that one. The better patterns starts after next weekend
  15. Allsnow
    Yep. We very well could swing and Miss. let’s hope for better luck this time. Last January we missed a storm to our south that crushed DCA.
  16. Allsnow
    Why would you be looking at the gfs that far out? It will change at 00z. You use the ensembles at that range. If it makes you feel better the euro has a costal snowstorm in that timeframe
  17. Allsnow
    Great to see both of you here! Hope all is well
  18. Allsnow
    I have provided proof with the roundy plots which you fail to acknowledge. I also have the ensembles all agreeing on a pattern change. Those plots you posted are off the GEFS and only going out to jan 16. So if the pattern is supposed to flip after the 20th what do they prove?
  19. Allsnow
    All we can say is the pattern looks to improve after the 20th. I get it, you can’t shovel potential! We very could score a nice storm or continue the bad luck. For us to get a storm we need a better pattern so we have that.
  20. Allsnow
    I’m not sure how many time it needs to be said that the rmm plots have a bias for cod at the end. Yet, he continues to rip and read them while they correct in front of him. This will be going 7-8-1-2. Yes, it will probably be muted in the colder phases as it’s not going to have strong amplitude like the warm phases. Even if that plot was to be correct, it would be bias cold because the mjo wave is closer to the cold phases.
  21. Allsnow
    We don’t need some uber -nao to trigger all the cold dry folks
  22. Allsnow
    My thoughts are it will be transient in nature but that’s all we really need to capitalize on something. The Scandinavian ridge is really a nice precursor to a -nao.
  23. Allsnow
    I didn’t think we would be this clear a few days ago. It’s really off to the races at this point. Out and about around town It feels like a April day.
  24. Allsnow
    Do you think this change is all from the mjo? My guess is yes, I don’t see why else would be changing the pac like this. Up to 62 here now! Models did a great job with the warmth.
  25. Allsnow
    Nice call @Isotherm! Looks like the Pv will start taking shots at the end of the month
×
×
  • Create New...