Allsnow

Yeah, big PNA rise in the west should produce a sizable storm. Looks like we will have a block to the north for it as well. I would watch that trailing wave after the cutter for some potential winter weather around the 4/5th

We are a h5 look away from a ideal storm track. It’s all about capitalizing on are chances. We haven’t had a good setup in the last two years. We don’t need a strong niño to get a snowstorm again

With the -enao the cold shot gets trapped underneath the block and just rots over us.

I agree. But it should come with a decent cold shot afterwards. The majority of the ensemble guidance keeps the +pna for the first half of December. With that look probably favor a Great Lakes snowstorm around the 30th-1st

Big time storm signal in the east to start December.

Im more referring to the winter as a whole. The last two winters whatever pattern set up at the end of December has dominated throughout the winter. This year seems reversed so far, with a warm November and early start to December. Now do we get a reverse in the second half of the month? The PV is very strong currently, this time last year it was weak and on the verge of a ssw. At the end of December 2018 the Pv took off and pretty much closed the shades on any snow potential.

As you said going to take a few weeks to flush that airmass out of Canada. Even with the pna the flow is still from B.C. And not poleward, so we will need the help of mid/late December climo.

One way to look at this warm November is it’s the exact opposite of the last two. Whatever pattern has set up in the 2nd half of December has dominated the winter.

I don’t think December 2010 is walking through the door but I feel optimistic for some snow in December. 1. the Pv isn’t going to sit in Ak 2. The pna willbe positive with the potential for some blocking 3. Once into mid December the above normal temps in Canada are below normal here.

Definitely more trending towards the GEFS today

Looks like a cold shot to start December after whatever storm goes by to end November

That’s all I’m really alluding to. Yes, as you said we had a tiny ridge for those months but the flow was split still kind of zonal at h5.

This is why I think 11/12 is a bad analog. We are not getting a typical Niña response and the PV might weaken for the second half of the winter.

That flow was still basically from Seattle or southern BC off a flat ridge. Not exactly a ideal pna rise for us.

That map doesn’t look like a +pna to me. It’s tough to tell with the hgt lines but doesn’t look like it. I don’t see any downstream trough in the east. Unless you’re talking about some garbage hgt rise in the west. I don’t recall +pna in December 18 or January 2019. We had a dateline ridge with a -pna. I remember we had blocking in early December that produced a snowstorm north/west. January 2019 we had recorded breaking warmth with a southeast ridge and -pna combo. March 2018 we had a snowy weekend with a -pna/-epo combo.

I might be in the minority but I feel the cutter/hugger track the last few years is more of a cause of the -pna then ENSO state

This would be fun if true . This is a niño look in a Niña ENSO lol

Looks like a active STJ and +pna to start December. We could have a chance with that set up

Yeah, I don’t think we had a ridge spike like that in the west for years.

Overnight looks like more of a trend to have the Pv move west of AK in the extended. Hopefully this allows for the pac puke to be flushed from Canada.

The darkest of the blues are over the Aleutians and ridge is in the west. I don’t think that’s a ideal snap shot imo. But I agree, this is more of a niño look then Niña for December

Just happy to see that pig moving away from Ak. Rolling forward (la la land range) I would think it should improve

Get the pig out of Ak with that PNA you will cool off quickly in Canada