@Isotherm what do you think is causing this niño response? Mjo with weak convection in P7? Or the warm pool off the west coast?
Aleutian low/++pna/-nao is textbook niño December
It will help cool eastern Canada closer to normal if it goes poleward. +3 for Canada is plenty cold for snow for us in this pattern.
Good to see that southeast ridge Niña look is not coming for December
Lots of pac influence with the +pna and lower hgts near Ack. We have a niño pattern to start December with a Aleutian low/+pna/-nao. We will be trapping a meh airmass under the block. It looks like after the 5th the ridge goes more poleward.
The last week of November was never supposed to be cold. Too much pac influence from the lower hgts in Ak. It’s after the 1st when we start seeing a +pna with -nao to suppress the southeast ridge
Yeah, looks like we start to cool Canada at the end of the run. That’s a pretty abrupt change on the weeklies for the first half of December. Last Friday it pretty much a Niña pattern for the month of December
Good. Hopefully this means it will weaken for the second half of the winter. Last winter it was real weak at this time and gain strength at the end of December