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Allsnow

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Everything posted by Allsnow

  1. Allsnow
    We just can’t shake the lower hgts in Ak. What once looked like a sustainable cold stretch next week has morphed into a few cold days. Coldest part of winter(especially further north then me) we don’t need a ice box but we are above normal after Thursday. Eps hinting at a swfe last week of January as snow mean creeps up.
  2. Allsnow
    That map was updated at 400pm and advisories were extended to somerset and middlesex counties.
  3. Allsnow
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  5. Allsnow
    Not expecting a repeat but February 2008 had a nice over performing swfe. Forecast was for 2-4 which ended up being 6-9.
  6. Allsnow
    -PDO means more of a -pna correct? Which has been another red flag lately, the inability for the pac to corporate. I was reading that warm waters south of ak might not Be that good for us anymore. It might be a magnet for low pressures. I believe 09–10/02-03 didn’t have those warm pool there. The lag effect has been noticeable in p8 for DJF. Question @bluewave @Isotherm why no lag effect in p8 during November? Shorter wave lengths?
  7. Allsnow
  8. Allsnow
    Euro ticks colder and snowier for the metro.
  9. Allsnow
    Agree. This low level cold is no joke thanks to the 1044 high in place. This is your typical swfe climo. Driscoll bridge will be another good dividing line
  10. Allsnow
    And reading the post by @Isotherm any help we get will be pac/strat related come mid February.
  11. Allsnow
    The mjo the last two years has been incredibly frustrating. All we do well with it is amplitude in the warm phases. And when we do get favorable phases (ex feb 2019 and January 2020) we don’t get the response we are expecting. For some reason the mjo in cold phases during November has worked better lol. Admittedly, I didn’t see how bad the pv was going to hurt us this winter. Once it continued to strengthen and couple with the atmosphere it was lights out.
  12. Allsnow
    I think it’s picking up on a kelvin wave in p6. This is why the rmm plots are decaying in 7 then heading to 6. Most recently as of today, those plots don’t enter 6 anymore and are staying in cod. I think (this is my opinion) you will make it to p8 to start February then decay in io.
  13. Allsnow
    Great stuff. Did you read that tweet about the MVP index? From what I understand if it’s + it will prevent from having a typical p8 mjo response. I agree that we will most likely not see any help from the ao or nao this year.
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  15. Allsnow
    I think the city and immediate suburbs west of the river are good for 2 inches. I can see ewr getting 3-4
  16. Allsnow
    Yeah if the dateline ridge comes back that would also keep the epo form going -. The weeklies are nine chilling for the start of February so perhaps it is going to score a win. It was the first to see the Niña pattern for early January.
  17. Allsnow
    I’ll go 1-2 for the metro and 2-4 north and west. Long Island c-1. I think sw ct will do the best as in top end of the 2-4.
  18. Allsnow
    Great to see you post here. Yeah at the end of the eps the vortex looks to be setting up shop. The weeklies have this weakening and Being replaced with a ridge. It would be best to see this low sit in the Aleutians instead of moving into ak. I know the euro is looping back to p6 on the rmm plots. I wonder if this is the reason we are seeing such swings in the northern pacific. The AAM spike is also playing a role in pushing the ridge into central Canada. On the roundy plots you can see a kelvin wave in p6. Imo this is why the euro is looping back into p6. I think as we get closer to the end of January you will see it correct into p8. Looks like by mid February the mjo wave dies in 8 and rots in cod. Perhaps then climo nino will take over. The weeklies do look good to start February and have a -nao look to start March lol.
  19. Allsnow
    Yep. Let’s hope its misplaced and we keep it by the Aleutians. It could be because the euro is looping the mjo back to 6. Which imo is bogus but I honestly don’t know anymore. It is what it is at this point
  20. Allsnow
    Yep. That’s not a good look in the 11-15 day. The goa low would move into ak. Let’s hope that’s not correct. We have seen the 11-15 day just change.
  21. Allsnow
    Ripping pretty good here in this snow shower.
  22. Allsnow
    Those plots are picking up on a kelvin wave in p6. That’s why you’re getting the curl back then back to 8. By the start of February we will be in p8 then the wave looks to die. Will will probably be in cod after the 10th then climo nino takes over for February. You can now see the members curling back. Those maps are so predictable.
  23. Allsnow
    Yep. Bad patterns bring bad results.
  24. Allsnow
    Yeah I think the biggest issue is the fact the waa is going north of the metro. So we are left with a band of snow for those south of CT. Best forcing is well north of the area
  25. Allsnow
    Eps ticked snowier also. Mean close to 3 for nyc
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