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Allsnow

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Everything posted by Allsnow

  1. Allsnow
    The eps and geps have a big -nao after the 18th that keeps the pattern serviceable. Is that true? Probably not lol. Only positive I see is that fact that the TPV remains in Canada/Ak, it will keep cold in Canada. If that area starts to go above normal then yeah it would be close the shades time
  2. Allsnow
    We have a opportunity between the 13-20th. The eps snow mean was pretty high due that timeframe. After that is when it will get ugly
  3. Allsnow
    Still think we have a opportunity at something mid month before the pattern goes to trash
  4. Allsnow
  5. Allsnow
    Yep, we completely lost the -epo look from a few days ago. Canada will be cold so any ridge out west before the 20th can tap colder air then what we have now.
  6. Allsnow
    Some concerning ensemble guidance today for any potential cold air after next weekend. Guidance moving the TPV quickly into Ak
  7. Allsnow
    No two patterns are the same. If it was that easy then we could just set the forecast to whatever happen in that month a year ago. This h5 look is different then the one we had last December. Earlier this week none of us thought this would produce for sne, yourself included.
  8. Allsnow
    Persistent forecasting can go bad quickly. I’m happy to see the costal storms are back.
  9. Allsnow
    @bluewave looks like Hartford is going to get another early season snowstorm like last year. I know you were skeptical of that happening again
  10. Allsnow
    Yep. That’s why New England avg so much more then us. Looks like another early season storm for BDL
  11. Allsnow
    The one behind it was our best shot but tomorrow’s storm is going to kill that chance
  12. Allsnow
    The single most important piece to east coast storms is a good Pna. This is probably the best the pac has looked since March 2018. Just some bad luck that we are not snowing in this pattern. The storms tracks are there
  13. Allsnow
    Lol. It’s definitely a possible outcome. Or the costal steals from the ULL and we get nothing.
  14. Allsnow
    Need to root for the first system to get out of the way quickly. The h5 has improved tremendously today
  15. Allsnow
    Happy hour euro trying to make wave two a thing
  16. Allsnow
    Yeah, around jan 18th we start seeing change back to a better look. I know that is way out there but it would fit the script on some of stuff going on with the strat/mjo
  17. Allsnow
    I remember saying after the 10th things will get better. It’s up in the air on how long that lasts. As of now, it looks like Niña pattern will return towards the 20th.
  18. Allsnow
    Is that from the op run? The GEFS are +3. A lot of that is from the warm up next weekend as the pac reshuffles.
  19. Allsnow
    We will have a shot a something the week of the 13th. The pattern looks to get more hostile/Niña like by the 20th
  20. Allsnow
    Weeklies have the cold shot and snow potential December 13-20th. It then goes full on Niña with cold west/warm East. Around January 15th (la la la land) it has -nao, -epo, and cold moving east. Looks like a niño pattern in the middle of January
  21. Allsnow
    And next weekend, 12-13th, we probably make a run at 60 degrees as the pac reshuffles
  22. Allsnow
    I’m not going to turn a blind eye to it! The end of the ensembles are look ugly. The vortex is moving into Ak and pac flow starts enveloping the country We still have a opportunity before that but as of now that’s where we Stand
  23. Allsnow
    The ensembles did a good job of predicting the ridge in west and trough in the east this weekend. It’s just small details that we won’t know until closer in. This weekend we have a nice 50/50 Feature that wasn’t their earlier.
  24. Allsnow
    Keeping the vortex weak is important because it allows us a mechanism to get cold without the help of the mjo. If the mjo (which I expect this winter) remains in unfavorable phases it is very important the vortex stay weak. Last winter strong mjo and vortex was a death sentence. Im not referring to a SSW, just a weak enough vortex for strat hits.
  25. Allsnow
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