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Allsnow

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Everything posted by Allsnow

  1. Allsnow
  2. Allsnow
    Starting to see some hints of the lower hgts moving out of Ak at the end of the eps/GEFS. I’m sure this will not be a quick process and can kicking might occur.
  3. Allsnow
    Yep. The pac is the only reason we are not getting a full on torch. Shades of 97-98 with a ideal storm track but a putrid airmass.
  4. Allsnow
    That’s incorrect. The gfs way to snowy and wet for the area. The nam did the best on thermals.
  5. Allsnow
    Similar to the cmc. Snow is restricted to NNE.
  6. Allsnow
    That would not change the fact that we have a onshore flow with a bad airmass. This is rain regardless for the coast. Northern Pa and Upstate ny have the best shot.
  7. Allsnow
    Perfect low track for the metro area and 100% rain. Shades of 97-98.
  8. Allsnow
    Like it snowed yesterday in a bad pattern with a arctic high.
  9. Allsnow
    Mjo still looks to get into 7/8 to start February then the kelvin wave gets stronger in p5. Lots of substance in p6 so would not be shocked if that wave collapsed into cod
  10. Allsnow
    Outside winters like 95-96/13-14 not many. That’s why we avg what we avg here for snow. I don’t follow why I need to survey people from DCA about winter 09-10? All I’m saying is that was Nino climo helped by a uber block in February and December.
  11. Allsnow
    If proving your point means the next two weeks look meh for snow and canonical nino is warm north/cold south, then sure. Obviously, those last two posts from you were trying to twist my words. Let’s not forget about the uber blocking in 09-10 in a otherwise warmer then normal winter. December 09 and January 10 were above Avg with little snow outside December 20 09.
  12. Allsnow
  13. Allsnow
    For the next two weeks it fits the h5 pattern well. A moderating northern tier with a active progressive stj. Just because it doesn’t show what you want doesn’t make it wrong. Yes, in that moderate 09-10 nino it was bitterly cold up north.
  14. Allsnow
    Yep, about on par for a normal high in areas north of nyc.
  15. Allsnow
    Yep. @bluewave made a terrific post about the +AAM and ridge by Hawaii. This played a big part in the colder pattern going poof. As you have said recently you can’t have biases in weather. If the pattern looked cold and snowy we both would be posting about it.
  16. Allsnow
    No matter the strength of nino the result is warmer northern tier with cooler south. With the vortex in AK it’s even worst. Just loop the 18z gfs it illustrates the up coming pattern very well.
  17. Allsnow
    I was referring to his statement about how Arctic air in January keeps storms to are south. The system stays to our south on the 12z euro and the big city’s along 95 get nothing but rain.
  18. Allsnow
    I’m not trying to rain on anyone’s parade. It’s a weather forum and you can track whatever you want. Imo the pattern looks unfavorable for significant snow in nyc for the next 2-3 weeks.
  19. Allsnow
    That’s simply incorrect. Having arctic air yesterday was the only reason you snowed.
  20. Allsnow
    Yes. Because we had very cold air in Canada. I don’t see that In the next two weeks of January. The vortex and ridge in Hudson Bay will moderate Canada quickly.
  21. Allsnow
    That’s Celsius Anthony
  22. Allsnow
    Disagree. I remember posting about a over running threat last Saturday when it was in the 70’s. I even posted how the news will have that classic split screen weather segment. The cold artic high pressure was the only reason we snowed in yesterday’s set up.
  23. Allsnow
    Okay. This was the exact tweet. I agree for North Carolina it’s not a torch. It will be too stormy down there with a active STJ which will keep temps around normal. Imo that tweet has nothing to do with areas outside the southern US.
  24. Allsnow
    It would be a torch if we didn’t have a split flow. That ridge from Hawaii would be in the plains instead of the west coast. It’s not a torch but above normal for the majority of the conus. I expect very little for the coastal plain the next two weeks. The interior and nne is a totally different story.
  25. Allsnow
    We have a very marginal airmass with no artic air around. The eps mean has less then a one inch for our area. Those numbers increase out by northern Pa and upstate ny. So in short, I would be shocked to see next weekend workout for the costal plain.
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