Allsnow

Yep. It’s been a combination of a lot of different things that hurt this winter. The Pv that coupled with the strat was a bigger factor then I anticipated. Going forward I think if we see the vortex weaken and move out we will enter more of a sustained cold pattern. But at this point I need to see that to believe it lol. It’s a shame too because we finally got a nino response with a +pna.

Yes. The only reason it’s not 50’s and rain is because of the pna ridge. This is the end of December 2019 pattern with a better pac.

The next two weeks. And no it’s not when the airmass is putrid

The airmass would be too warm for snow in Brooklyn ny. Their was literally 2 pages worth of you arguing with me that it was cold enough and webb said that’s a cold look in Hilton head.

Yes, because other factors are controlling the pattern.

Thanks. I get it, people want results in there backyard. I’m just as frustrated as everyone. We are basically kicking 2 weeks of peak snow climo. @Rjay put it best by saying we flip to just another trashy pattern. I tried to tell @Snow88 and @Mersky, but it was like talking to a brick wall.

The last few days I have been posting how the airmass is putrid for these storms. It’s a product of the vortex moving into Ak and the cold on the other side of the globe. If we had blocking all it would be doing is blocking a pac airmass. At the end of the eps and Geps a piece of the cold breaks off and enters the conus around the 5th. Is this correct? Idk. February will go the way the Pv goes. If the Pv moves out of ak the ao will improve. The ridge in central might move into Greenland around the 5th also. Which will be pushed out by the vortex.

It’s going to get close to 8 then weaken into cod. The kelvin wave in p5 will loop back quickly as we go towards p2 by middle of February. I don’t think I was that far off with it. Unfortunately, other factors are going to mitigate the response we will have. The -mvp and Pv is basically killing our winter. All the cold is on the other side of the globe next week. If we didn’t see the Pv couple with the strat this would be a very snowy period. We would have a active stj with cold around. Instead we have a crap airmass with costal storms. If we are keeping tabs i did say the storm track would improve after the 20th. Most of the threats the next two weeks are taking good tracks for us.

I don’t think the mjo will be ruling the roost for February. It looks weak overall and perhaps closer to The end fo February we see the wave in P2 take over. February will be dictated by other factors such as the pac and weakening of the Pv. We need to get the vortex out of Ak.

For costal sections and the metro area it has 1 inch total for the next 15 days. So yeah, close the shades until further notice

The EPS is incredibly snowy for northern Pa and southern Ny. Probably the snowiest I have seen them all year. 7-8 on the mean

It’s a kelvin wave that all the rmm plots are jumping on. The roundy plots move it quickly ( kelvin waves move quickly regardless) and then a mjo wave forms in p1-2 by the 10th. The mjo is so weak next month that it will be other factors that will control the pattern. We need to see the PV weaken or change positions.

The gfs imo has the correct idea with it jumping on the kelvin wave in 6. Then it will move quickly as a new mjo forms in p2 by feb 10th

Yep, and We are probably 2-3 weeks away from another arctic outbreak.

14 degrees. My coldest temp of the winter

If I had to guess I think any change will be more towards mid February. Basically in line with @Isotherm thinking. Probably more of a pattern for sustained cold.

Yeah, I think this is the correct thinking. Latest roundy maps has the current wave croaking in 7/8. Then they start keying on a kelvin wave in p5. With lots of substance in p6, looks like it will head back towards cod then eventually a wave forms in p1/2. As for the weeklies, we need to get that look inside day 7 for me to believe it. If the AAM relaxes then perhaps typical February nino takes over.

I agree. Until I see it inside day 7 color me skeptical as well. It takes the cold pool from Ak and moves it into the conus.

It had a big hand in Why the models went away from the cold stormy look in the long range. Look back a bit for @bluewave posts. He had some great information on it.

FWIW the weeklies Flip the Pattern by February 8th. Huge -epo/+pna with some higher hgts near Greenland. It’s basically the end of the eps rolled forward off my previous post. It keeps that look into March. Is this correct? Idk. I think the kelvin wave will weaken in p5 as the mjo heads towards cod. As for the strat looks like activity picks up there towards mid month.

@bluewave

Just not in sink. I see improvements on the 11-15 day eps but that’s la la land. It wants to kick the ridge to Greenland and higher hgts move into Ak. Something to monitor as we get closer. It will take time to flush this pac air out. By day 15 on the eps we are still above avg with those changes.

Well at least we are done with the cutters now that we have Hudson Bay ridging lol

Which have been documented well that it’s been too cold in that 11-15 day range. Perhaps some hints of change by Feb 5th but that could be rushing it.