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Allsnow

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Everything posted by Allsnow

  1. Yeah, I would favor above normal. If we can keep Canada cold (which it looks like) we should be okay going forward. This isn’t last winter where the Pv strengthened and mjo went crazy at the end of December.
  2. Something to look at going forward is how the PV will start to weaken after mid month. The mjo is also to forecast to die off in 5. If we can get the Pv to control the pattern things could become more favorable end of December into January
  3. The eps was breaking off a piece of the energy out west to try and keep us cool this weekend. It corrected earlier last week.
  4. All I’m saying is it looks hostile around that timeframe. The mjo forcing is bad and the -AAM keeps the Niña look. I don’t think it’s a surprise that we are getting more of a Niña look for late December. TBD how bad it gets. As long as you keep the vortex in Canada you just need to buckle the flow. I’m not trying to steal your snow
  5. @michsnowfreak https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/catalogue/
  6. @bluewave I believe has a site where you can view it for free.
  7. The pig isn’t in Ak. It’s still in Canada so it protects them from getting flooded with pac puke. If that would to happen you can write off the following two weeks IMO. Not saying I expect that
  8. No, but the idea of the pattern getting awful around that time has support.
  9. Yeah, it’s been a rough stretch down here as well. Kphl hasn’t had a inch of snow in 21 months
  10. The GEFS were the first to back away from the better look mid month. The eps continues to show a good pattern in the 11-15 until it went towards the GEFS yesterday. The models have been chasing this -epo/blocking pattern for a while now. In reality we just end up with more of the same. We really need something to shake things up.
  11. The MJO is croaking in 4/5 that’s not good for sustainable cold. We need something to shake the pattern up or it’s very meh. Lots of 40/50’s with rain
  12. Yep. That ULL really produced at night for the 2nd part
  13. The eps and geps have a big -nao after the 18th that keeps the pattern serviceable. Is that true? Probably not lol. Only positive I see is that fact that the TPV remains in Canada/Ak, it will keep cold in Canada. If that area starts to go above normal then yeah it would be close the shades time
  14. We have a opportunity between the 13-20th. The eps snow mean was pretty high due that timeframe. After that is when it will get ugly
  15. Still think we have a opportunity at something mid month before the pattern goes to trash
  16. Yep, we completely lost the -epo look from a few days ago. Canada will be cold so any ridge out west before the 20th can tap colder air then what we have now.
  17. Some concerning ensemble guidance today for any potential cold air after next weekend. Guidance moving the TPV quickly into Ak
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