Allsnow

Anyone that has gone cold and snowy for this winter has had it rough. My point of posting his tweet is that I agree with him. Does it mean 40 inch February for Knyc? No! All I’m saying is I don’t think February will be a all out disaster. (like January) IMO February should offer some chances. It was obvious last week (I posted such) that January was toast.

@bluewave great post a few days ago about a stronger wave in p1 to disrupt the Pv/vortex.

Mjo won’t rule the roost

I still think our chances will go up for snow around the 5th. The airmass will greatly improve. Signs of the trough pulling back west between the 10-15 of February. But that’s so far out in time it will probably changed. I continue to like the disruptions to the Pv we are seeing for February.

Euro was leading the way on this with a better Pv orientation for the first week of February. The GEFS just caved in that direction. I’m definitely feeling more confident now for the cold shot around the 5th

Interior should be excited with this setup

We look to have a good pna next week. The airmass and position of ridge will be key. A costal hugger or a apps runner isn’t a cutter. I doubt we see a cutter in this pattern.

Getting out there in the uber long range but I like the 5th-8th timeframe. Better airmass with some blocking.

Yeah, starts kicking that vortex out around the 3rd as the Hudson ridge moves closer to Greenland.

Because it’s a weather forum and find weather interesting. I hope this is okay with you.......

Not a bad h5 set up but the airmass is kind of meh

Eps looks even better this run by kicking the vortex out by the 3rd. We even get some blocking at the end in the NAO region. All this is great but we need to view it through skeptical eyes. Just trying to give you guys a update daily.

Gefs in agreement with eps/geps at 12z with flushing out the vortex first week of February. Let’s see if we can hold this as we move closer.

I agree with all of this. Very nice post.

EPS Idv have some hits around the 30th to 1st. The better look is around the 5th-6th when we have a colder airmass. I would say we have a chance but better shot inland.

Do you think with loosing the big time wpac forcing we will see a relaxation in the +AAM

Latest Roundy plots have the mjo getting stronger in p1 then moving into p2. This might be the jump start we need to kick the vortex out? @bluewave

I think it’s definitely has a hand in our weather Pattern. It matters more imo from NYC south then say you guys. You can snow in p6 more easily then I can. That’s why I avg 20 and you guys avg 60.

It most of our snowy winters (down here) we didn’t have that warm blob in the NPAC. IMO I think warm waters in that spot helps Lows sit south of Ak. So yeah, I’m not a big fan of that argument. Don't you think the PV being so strong has kept us mild overall? It’s been pretty toasty across the country since mid December.

The Pv gaining strength coupled with the strat allowed for the coldest air to stay by the pole. I’m not saying we need a voodoo SSW but a better alignment of the pv would help get colder air into the conus. Currently we have a putrid airmass for these threats coming up. Obviously NNE/Sne can snow in the heart of January in lots of patterns, but for us down here we need a better airmass. The huge pna obviously was model fantasy but it has improved to allow more of a southern storm track. We don’t have a -pna anymore and if we did it would have definitely sent more mild air across the conus with the vortex in Ak.

Yep, hearing the same whispers. The strat guys think the pv starts to weaken in the middle of the month. I don’t think the mjo will be a big player going forward. I just really want to see that vortex get punted. I think that’s why the weeklies looked good after the 5th. It has the pv more elongated to provide us will cold air and a pac ridge. It’s basically the look at the end of the eps rolled forward. For nne/sne the airmass is definitely serviceable next week.

Yeah the eps is weakening it but not really punting it out yet. Still consistent with a cold dump around the 5th. For down here it’s a shame we have such a putrid airmass. The pacific has improved which is allowing for a better storm track.

Yes, but it originates from the pac as the vortex is wound tight with all the cold. Nice pna spike but a crap airmass. The eps has less then a inch for that timeframe

Yeah the vortex is going to weaken eventually. I think more towards the end of February as well. I believe @Isotherm thinks the same. Im more interested if the cold shot around the 5th gets punted. The weeklies and eps have been consistent in showing this.