If we don’t improve the pac all we will be blocking is mild air. The Ao is negative but spilling the cold on the other side of the globe. The -nao is probably a result of the weakening Pv. We have a chance at something working out but my money is on us waiting for January. The mjo wave currently looks to make it into p7 (even if weakly) should improve the pac
That’s a accurate chart of what’s going on currently. As of now no secondary peak is imminent. The eastern pac has actually warmed over the last few weeks.
This isn’t going to be last winter where the PV gained strength and the mjo went wild at the end of December. The vortex is going to stay in Canada which will keep them cold. All we would need is something to buckle the flow to get the cold here.
This December is acting more like a niño then Niña. Perhaps we get a niño January/February instead then. Who knows
Which was forecasted I believe from early last week. It was never supposed to be super below normal. The warmth was expected by the weekend. I believe I even posted about it.
The following week won’t be cold because we lost the -epo look
I didn’t really say anything about cold in my post lol. I agree, lately it has been the theme. But I do think the models did a good job calling for this week to be cold. Its just going to be dry so no snow means nobody will care.