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Allsnow

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Everything posted by Allsnow

  1. Allsnow
    Something to look at going forward is how the PV will start to weaken after mid month. The mjo is also to forecast to die off in 5. If we can get the Pv to control the pattern things could become more favorable end of December into January
  2. Allsnow
    The eps was breaking off a piece of the energy out west to try and keep us cool this weekend. It corrected earlier last week.
  3. Allsnow
    Not if we continue with a bad mjo and -AAM
  4. Allsnow
    All I’m saying is it looks hostile around that timeframe. The mjo forcing is bad and the -AAM keeps the Niña look. I don’t think it’s a surprise that we are getting more of a Niña look for late December. TBD how bad it gets. As long as you keep the vortex in Canada you just need to buckle the flow. I’m not trying to steal your snow
  5. Allsnow
    @michsnowfreak https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/catalogue/
  6. Allsnow
    @bluewave I believe has a site where you can view it for free.
  7. Allsnow
    The pig isn’t in Ak. It’s still in Canada so it protects them from getting flooded with pac puke. If that would to happen you can write off the following two weeks IMO. Not saying I expect that
  8. Allsnow
    No, but the idea of the pattern getting awful around that time has support.
  9. Allsnow
    No it didn’t...
  10. Allsnow
    Yeah, it’s been a rough stretch down here as well. Kphl hasn’t had a inch of snow in 21 months
  11. Allsnow
  12. Allsnow
    Christmas looks toasty
  13. Allsnow
  14. Allsnow
    The GEFS were the first to back away from the better look mid month. The eps continues to show a good pattern in the 11-15 until it went towards the GEFS yesterday. The models have been chasing this -epo/blocking pattern for a while now. In reality we just end up with more of the same. We really need something to shake things up.
  15. Allsnow
    The MJO is croaking in 4/5 that’s not good for sustainable cold. We need something to shake the pattern up or it’s very meh. Lots of 40/50’s with rain
  16. Allsnow
    Yep. That ULL really produced at night for the 2nd part
  17. Allsnow
    The eps and geps have a big -nao after the 18th that keeps the pattern serviceable. Is that true? Probably not lol. Only positive I see is that fact that the TPV remains in Canada/Ak, it will keep cold in Canada. If that area starts to go above normal then yeah it would be close the shades time
  18. Allsnow
    We have a opportunity between the 13-20th. The eps snow mean was pretty high due that timeframe. After that is when it will get ugly
  19. Allsnow
    Still think we have a opportunity at something mid month before the pattern goes to trash
  20. Allsnow
  21. Allsnow
    Yep, we completely lost the -epo look from a few days ago. Canada will be cold so any ridge out west before the 20th can tap colder air then what we have now.
  22. Allsnow
    Some concerning ensemble guidance today for any potential cold air after next weekend. Guidance moving the TPV quickly into Ak
  23. Allsnow
    No two patterns are the same. If it was that easy then we could just set the forecast to whatever happen in that month a year ago. This h5 look is different then the one we had last December. Earlier this week none of us thought this would produce for sne, yourself included.
  24. Allsnow
    Persistent forecasting can go bad quickly. I’m happy to see the costal storms are back.
  25. Allsnow
    @bluewave looks like Hartford is going to get another early season snowstorm like last year. I know you were skeptical of that happening again
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