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Allsnow

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Everything posted by Allsnow

  1. Allsnow
    Some of the ens are hinting at the boundary slipping south of our area after the 15th. The Pv will be in a better position and the AO dropping from uber strength. We get a better cold press and knock the southeast ridge down in return. Do we believe it? I wouldn’t bet my house on it....
  2. Allsnow
    Because the mjo keeps dying and reforming in 4/5/6. Only way we get into some type of snowy pattern is if the Pv weakens or gets into a better position
  3. Allsnow
    Nice post! We can only hope.
  4. Allsnow
    I don’t currently think we get much help from the mjo this month or the next. The warm waters are just helping convection fire in the wrong phases. Weeklies keep this Niña type pattern going well into March. There are weeks where the boundary slips south but definitely no deep winter pattern in sight.
  5. Allsnow
    I would need to go back and look. The Pv being so strong and mjo in warm phases isn’t helping. 97-98 had a similar pac jet
  6. Allsnow
    Enjoy today and tomorrow....probably won’t be this nice again for a while. Ugh
  7. Allsnow
    It happened all last winter. The pacific jet is just very fast around the globe. We need to slow it down but unfortunately it hasn’t happen. We have done better in March because the wave length shorten. Even when we get a some pna help out west it’s more of a ridge then what we really need.
  8. Allsnow
    Only chance at snow would be front end slop or a weak wave between cutters. Unfortunately, beautiful days like today and tomorrow are probably over for a while. Looks more 40’s and rain going forward
  9. Allsnow
    It keeps killing the pna ridge from amplifying into western Canada. So it’s harder for the storms to turn up the coast. But overall the pacific has been a hot mess for two years now.
  10. Allsnow
    The energy for the weekend was weaker. We need the cutter to set the stage with a better airmass.
  11. Allsnow
    Definitely a possibility if it remains weak and Thursday’s cutter is strong.
  12. Allsnow
    Eps mean still hinting at something for Saturday night. Snow mean around 1-2 for the area.
  13. Allsnow
    The gfs has the light snowfall for Saturday night on today’s 12z run. It’s not as amped as the euro(which the euro is probably wrong on) but it has potential. As long as we get a strong cutter Thursday we should have a good airmass for it.
  14. Allsnow
    18z euro very Icey for northern NJ Thursday morning. Nice strip of snow for lower Hudson valley also
  15. Allsnow
    Areas in the Poconos are doing well also. The system is definitely more robust then forecasted.
  16. Allsnow
    Why wouldn’t I be in good banding for a marginal airmass system during early February lol
  17. Allsnow
    Higher elevation areas of northern Nj doing well with this event. Euro was showing this potential. Definitely a surprise for some.
  18. Allsnow
    Light snow 35
  19. Allsnow
    Not to be taking literally but insane gradient in snowfall the next two weeks
  20. Allsnow
    Would think you are seeing some wet flakes now with those returns on radar by you
  21. Allsnow
    Snowing which is odd because it’s going to be 97 degrees tomorrow
  22. Allsnow
    Absolutely. It’s a gradient pattern. I think last nights eps mean was 3-4 for me and 8-10 for sne. This is for the entire run.
  23. Allsnow
    Best area for snow will be northern Pa into the lower Hudson valley/sne before a change over. I don’t see much snow falling for areas around the city and northern nj.
  24. Allsnow
    Yeah, but now the system for next weekend is in a perfect spot with a weaker cutter. In this pattern you don’t want it perfect 160 hours out. Last nights euro with a stronger cutter the following system went south of us.
  25. Allsnow
    We probably want this system as jacked up as possible so the following wave next Saturday goes under us. At best this is some sleet/ice to rain for the area. Don’t buy into the ggem/Ukmet silliness.
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