Allsnow

Roundy plots have it collapsing in 6/7 then a new wave forming in p1/2. We also have a Kelvin wave in p8.

That looks accurate IMO. Roundy plots have the mjo collapsing on the boarder of 6/7 and then a wave forming in 1/2. Would support a window for something in late February and early March. This was a timeframe that was pointed out by @40/70 Benchmark Until then rain for us metfan. I’m here to bring you back to our forum.

Agree. Normally by March 15th it’s over for the metro outside a fluke event. I agree, (I believe you think the mjo will help) that we could see a better pac to start March. We would still have other issues but it would make the pattern more serviceable.

Going to be a shock to the system with how mild it has been. We also have a good snow pack north of our area into upstate Ny. This will prevent the air from modifying too much. Great outlook from you this year Tom. It really nailed the overall idea for DJF. I hope we can pull off one plowable event (2+ on Pavement) in your window to start March. I really don’t see much to inspire confidence that we might get a event in February. Some signs that we Could enter p1/p2 to start March. Would line up well with your thoughts .

Straight out of the 1980’s with this cold dry outbreak for next weekend.

Lol. When he was metfan we had all those snowy winters in the 2010’s.

Really? A 5 inch mean in Boston by day 15 in the heart of winter isn’t that great. Even worst down here. Keep in mind the eps snow mean has been 8-10 for orh every run since December. Looks great for NNE but that is a pattern the next two weeks that favors them.

Snow mean on the eps through day 15 is 1-2 inches lol.

The eps basically ends February with the vortex back in Ak and southeast ridge. That’s probably a pretty mild look for us.

Go back to metfan please

The pig is back on the eps

Party like it’s the 1990’s

@NEG NAO can you use the proper thread for medium range threats.

Yeah, the pig made a late home in Ak at the end of December. Usually, we get some earlier signs that the vortex might be a problem in that region. With the way December started it was kind of a quick reversal.

GEFS at 12z with a cave towards the eps after next weekend. Lower hgts in ak with a zonal flow.

Flurries in Metuchen! Lol

Inside 7 days it has been too snowy at times. But specifically speaking for H5 set ups it has not been bad.

I’m not sure about the Ao. The Pv being so strong I don’t think has a effect on it. (I could be wrong) We really needed strat hits with such a strong PV and never got them. The Ao is so positive because of strong storm by the pole I believe..... @bluewave might know more I know we had some higher hgts in Greenland to start December. It obviously wasn’t a true -nao but helped sne score a good storm. Since then, yes it’s been MIA. The vortex near Greenland certainly doesn’t help.

This was the latest Roundy plot. Convection gets close to the 6/7 boarder then a new wave forms in p2 by March 1.

Thank you. Sorry for causing a stir.

Absolutely. It’s one of the main reasons this winter went down the toilet. The other being the Pv.

This is a ridiculous post from a member that should be on a daily post limit. The fact that you can’t give examples to your ridiculous claims makes your posts irrelevant.

Yes it did. The forcing made it into 8-1-2 but the convection firing by Australia muted the response. The roundy plots correctly predicted the 5-6 pass for this month at the end of January. It was laughed out by the usually suspects but again they were proven wrong The eps nailed the RNA pattern for February. It did have a hiccup at the end of January when it had a cold pattern in the 11-15 day. But outside of that it’s been okay. The GEFS have been too cold in the medium range.

Give examples....what have they been wrong about