Allsnow

The sun feels hot today! This disaster of a winter is almost over

We just going to need and wait and see. The stats @donsutherland1 are posting definitely don’t inspire confidence on any snow going forward. That being said, after the 25th I think we will have a better shot of threading the needle. By no means is that a endorsement to gas the snowblowers up lol. But yes, I think March will mainly be a continuation of what we have now. Warm/wet.

Yeah, we had a snowy 1st weekend of March with that -epo.

Sun!

Yep. It’s obviously personal preference on how you get to normal snowfall. You can do it all in one shot (nice to have that luxury on the east coast) or nickel and dime your way. Kord(Chicago) is crawling its way to avg snowfall with numerous little events. It’s greatest 24 hours snowfall was 3 inche back on October 31st lol. The seasonal total so far is 21 inches with that being 2 inches below normal.

Absolutely. Usually if it is warm down here you guys are cashing in up there. It also helps that your avg temps are so cold during peak winter. You can be +10 for the day and still be in some CCB magic. The ensembles did well with forecasting this gradient look for the month of February. More often the not your area will be a winter wonderland.

Reminds me of Knyc in 2016. How about Caribou, Maine with its 4th warmest winter and still with over 100 inches of snow. Must be nice sigh

Don’t worry crew Cansips look great for January 2021 lol

Nikonman32 joined 22 minutes ago, you’re taking the bait.

Mjo looks to improve but the Ao and Pv are still way to strong. It could not be a improvement even if we are in the cold phases. Just need to wait and see. I think if we do get anything it will be in the first week of March.

Then back to the regular schedule program

This will probably be the first and last shot of arctic air for the 2020 winter.

We salute you! BTW I’m glad everyone of your coworkers are okay. The system is truly backwards unfortunately. Be safe out there.

We should double that in the next few weeks...ugh

Yep. Looks like the weeklies have less of a Niña look around then.

This will go down as one of the worst winters of my lifetime. Just endless rain and mild weather. I can’t get over the lack of cold weather. It has literally been March here for the last three months. It most definitely can’t get any worse IMBY next winter. So I guess there is that...

This does have some positives going for it around the Chicago area. It will be coming Wednesday night with a better airmass in front of it. A good amount of the guidance overnight trended weaker with the northern stream which helped with a snowier trend. Eps snow mean

Roundy plots have it collapsing in 6/7 then a new wave forming in p1/2. We also have a Kelvin wave in p8.

That looks accurate IMO. Roundy plots have the mjo collapsing on the boarder of 6/7 and then a wave forming in 1/2. Would support a window for something in late February and early March. This was a timeframe that was pointed out by @40/70 Benchmark Until then rain for us metfan. I’m here to bring you back to our forum.

Agree. Normally by March 15th it’s over for the metro outside a fluke event. I agree, (I believe you think the mjo will help) that we could see a better pac to start March. We would still have other issues but it would make the pattern more serviceable.

Going to be a shock to the system with how mild it has been. We also have a good snow pack north of our area into upstate Ny. This will prevent the air from modifying too much. Great outlook from you this year Tom. It really nailed the overall idea for DJF. I hope we can pull off one plowable event (2+ on Pavement) in your window to start March. I really don’t see much to inspire confidence that we might get a event in February. Some signs that we Could enter p1/p2 to start March. Would line up well with your thoughts .

Straight out of the 1980’s with this cold dry outbreak for next weekend.

Lol. When he was metfan we had all those snowy winters in the 2010’s.