Allsnow
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Everything posted by Allsnow
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Record breaking warmth fail -
Still cool and dank here
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We still don’t if the mjo will be enough to flip the pattern. It’s a very strong wave so their is reasonable hope for it. But unfortunately the mjo isn’t the only factor currently
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The olr maps are more accurate and have p7 around Christmas then p8-1 to end the year into 2022
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Those rmm plots chase convection. We are still currently in p6
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Phase 7 effects won’t be felt until closer to Christmas. Any phase 8 impacts will be after xmass. The only wildcard is some strat hits on the Pv around the 20th that could help with a cold shot in that timeframe.
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Need to continue to see trends of the pna relaxing. Nice trend in that area over the last few ensemble runs
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Eps overnight was hinting at some front end snows for the 20th
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Nam keeps temps in the upper 50’s/low 60’s today.
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Incredible historical event. Very sad stuff.
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Crazy snow gradient around msp last night
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Ensembles getting colder in the 11-15 day as the -pna is less stout and stronger -nao
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Last three days at the park have been below normal with yesterday having the largest departure of -6. Didn’t get out of the 30’s yesterday.
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We need to start seeing changes (moving up in time) somewhere and this is a start….I’ll take a -epo and East based block and roll it forward from there…
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Looks like the high was 37 at nyc? That would be below the forecast high of 39
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Ehhh, maybe. Would really need that nao kick back the se ridge
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Eps and GEFS agree on the -nao/-epo combo but that -pna is going to be a problem
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Euro says no for nyc
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December 2017 into January 2018 was our last real stretch of artic cold temperatures
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Next week still looks mild but the 70’s talk might be a stretch. The weekend is now looking to be the warmest on the models. The highest temperature next week at nyc is the upper 50’s
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It’s going to take a major hit but will probably regain strength after that. It that wave 2 hit is true, it could help improve the pattern for cold/nao
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-epo continues to move up in time on the ensembles. The Pv looks to take a hit around that time which might allow for a -nao. It will take time but after next week’s blowtorch I do see some positive signs
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We have had a +pna last week
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42/34 in the park yesterday. Should be another below normal day today. Models did a good job forecasting this cold shot
