Who really knows...if anything the last few years have humbled some that put out seasonal Outlooks. IMO the key factors for any winter are the PV and MJO. Unfortunately, those can change drastically from month to month. Last winter the PV got uber strong and locked the cold by the pole. We didn’t get any help from the strat and it turned into a nightmare for snow lovers. In 18-19 we got a SSW in January but it never coupled so we got a few day cold outbreak. It also didn’t help that the nino never showed Up the last two winters. We ended up with more of a Niña like pattern for February 19 and 20.