Allsnow

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Those temp anomalies....winter of yore in Seattle. 

Ha. Look for some snow down on the vegas strip in this pattern 

16 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Rain for xmas day. No cold air

Gives you 4-6 this run…no cold air 

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

72 hr GFS has maybe a snow shower over CT and rain shower over LI nothing south of there.  Yawn, pattern just blows

Wrong. I said a period of light snow and not the blizzard of 96. 

14 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Not seeing much if anything on the 12z NAM and RGEM

-

Seriously the 72 hr nam? 

Looks like some light snow is possible early Christmas Eve morning on all the models currently 

2 hours ago, EasternLI said:

IMO, it's this area of persistent convection north of Australia causing this persistent -PNA. So you would want some subsidence to push east from the Indian Ocean to tamp that down somewhat as the mjo moves east. That's what was happening on some of the better ensemble (eps & gefs) runs last week. Not so much currently. This is also a piece of the la Niña base state. So it's definitely a challenging proposition, especially with very warm water in this area. Just wanted to point that out for those wondering why that -PNA is there in the first place. 

The typhoon really slowed the progression of the mjo. Probably won’t be until the new year we get into p7. Hopefully we can get a pac reshuffle but the ensembles have definitely been can kicking it 

Biggest negative departure at the park yesterday with -6.9 

5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

That good?

Looks good for most of January. Even though blocking breaks down the pv lobe sits near Hudson Bay. By February (way out in time) we go back to the Niña look we have now 

Weeklies!

19 was the low overnight here 

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Anytime the pattern isn't perfect, there is a chance that it doesn't work out, but there are plenty of instances of RNA/-NAO working out around here.

You just can’t have the pna so negative. A weak pna would have made a huge difference in this current pattern 

1 minute ago, RippleEffect said:

hard freeze coming for everybody. that's a start!

Winter making a comeback!!!

Coldest night of the season coming tonight with teens and 20’s for lows 

1 minute ago, EasternLI said:

That's kind of the way I'm leaning right now. But phase 7 is interesting anyway, that pattern can have ramifications up north. This is all way better than being stuck in the IO or Maritime Continent either way. I'd just pack it in if that was what we were facing. 

Yeah, if we get to mid January and still stuck in the same h5 set up we are probably in trouble. At that point We would probably need a ssw to save us lol. As of now, I don’t think it’s time to Panic 

2 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

The question is, does it progress after a stall? Or what happens? I still see pretty strong subsidence in the Indian ocean edging into the Maritime Continent on the end of both ensembles. So I don't think we revert to that area. At least not initially because of that. 

It will get into 8 but probably after the 1st week of January 

On 11/26/2021 at 5:53 AM, snowman19 said:

@bluewaveStill a firehose PAC jet in the long range as far as the eye can see. It shows no signs of letting up. It also looks like the +EPO has established a positive feedback loop due to the super cold GOA/severely -PDO and the extremely deep snowpack over all of Alaska. It’s just continuing to manufacture it’s own extreme cold there due to the very heavy snowpack and lack of sun, Alaska is setting all kinds of cold records

Didn’t age well 

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The signals for the deep -PNA/RNA, full-latitude trough in the west this month were clear as day at the end of November, even just before Thanksgiving week, the problem is some decided to ignore those warnings. And there are more warnings for January….the models are steadfast on the tropical convective forcing moving to the IO by mid-January…..I’m sure these red flags will also be ignored by some as well….

On 11/25/2021 at 10:21 AM, snowman19 said:

The La Niña driven easterly trades are absolutely roaring up to the dateline. Any MJO wave that tries to propagate into phases 7, 8 is going to get ripped apart and sheared to shreds 

 

The last cold December in nyc was 2017. The lowest high temperature was 18 and the lowest low was 9. The month final departure was -4  

NYE 2017 was -20 for the daily departure 

9 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

EPS with a nod now to the GEFS at 12z with the mjo IMO. That's a new development today. Stall in phase 7 is a real possibility. So you can see, the nice pattern previously displayed, now delayed as a result. The trough was further east by this time on the 00z run. That's why it's important to keep an eye on this stuff. 

Phase 7 in January is a good pattern for the east coast 

37 and after the recent warmth it feels chilly 

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

The long range EPS takes the forcing back into the IO in mid -January. So it’s uncertain how long that early January forecast  pattern lasts. We’ll probably get some more clues with the weeklies tomorrow.

 

I would take any mjo forecast that far in advance with a grain of salt. Even you have said take it two weeks at a time 

That’s a incredible block showing up on a day 11-15 mean (obviously it starts way earlier then that) but the fact that it will still be there in January as the pac improves is a great sign. I still think we wait until closer to NYD for our first threat but perhaps something works before then. 

21 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I’d certainly want to see the PNA at least trend toward neutral for our area. Otherwise I agree we risk another 07-08 with rounds of SWFEs that blast I-90 and do us no good. The SE ridge is beneficial though (not overwhelming) since it forces the storms to turn north and not suppress out to sea. 

But I don’t think we had blocking in 07-08. With blocking and moving the pna out into the Rockies would give us a better chance. We would definitely risk cutters but the opportunity would be better then 07/08

Sleet/rain mix here in CT by Middletown.