Allsnow

48/29 her today. A bit above avg but nothing crazy like the talk earlier in the week on Twitter 

Knyc was 40/30 yesterday with .2 of snowfall for the Christmas Eve torch 

23 minutes ago, snywx said:

36° here with snow on the ground.. Negative on the torch

Enjoy!!!!! With a ice storm in sne. Glad we don’t live in Texas 

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Enjoy 

High 48 today so much for the Christmas torch 

42 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Getting close to 50° now with breaks of sun.

 

 

 

Enjoy 

6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yup. I feel real good about January as a whole.

I think we get to this look at some point in January 

Looks like a hit on the Pv will lead to a cold shot between January 1-3. After that the ridge will flex again as we wait for the epo to move east a bit 

10 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

My original disagreement with those posts was that, at the time of my post, the -PNA was not nearly at the strength that it was. Therefore, I was claiming that the 3 SD ridge over Greenland would overpower the -PNA, which happens an overwhelming majority of the time.

However, we ended up getting 510dam heights over Seattle, which is something that nobody could predict more than a few days in advance, let alone more than 10 days. I did anticipate the -PNA, but there was no way that anybody could see its record breaking nature at that lead time, which is what fully overwhelmed the pattern. 

Look, LR forecasting is hard, and I did not want to derail my intuition based on the slight possibility that an unprecedented event would occur. It would be just as bad if I said there would be a blizzard over the metro if there was a mean trough over the E US at 180 hours. Everyone makes mistakes though, the weather humbles everyone.

Great stuff! I was wrong as well about the magnitude of the pna. Unfortunately, the 11-15 day can over smooth the anomalies but when we get closer certain signals trend stronger. 
 

I completely agree, if this pna was just normal and centered over the Rockies it would have been a completely diff outcome for our area. The only thing the nao is doing is keeping it from being 70 degrees every day. If we didn’t have the nao currently we would be breaking record highs daily 

1 hour ago, eduggs said:

Upper level support decreases as the system approaches us from the west. The precipitation will also be fighting dry air as it tries to move east. But there could be a sneaky burst of snow maybe just southwest of us? CPA, SNJ. At least it's a threat worth watching.

Agree! 

I’m disappointed in the last few pages as their hasn’t been one post of wolfie howling 

Models bringing back the Monday light snow event. 

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Just remember that the long range models have been consistently underestimating the -PNA and SE Ridge in their forecasts beyond 8-10 days.

 

New day 4-8 forecast for last week of December

Old day 10-14 forecast for the last week of December 

 

 

Agree. What we were discussing is how the low north of Japan is forecast to weaken. If one of those players show change then it might have merit this time. 

Lga with 0.6! Haha. Those snowless December calls were such a huge bust 

16 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

I don't see the 00z eps getting to phase 8. Looking like phase 7 still to me throughout that run. What I think we’re seeing is a wave break or two that grabs a piece of that ridge and pushes it poleward. A lot of guidance is showing something like that. So maybe that pushes some of that cold east somewhat for a time. It seems to me as though the same overall pattern is still in place for the most part. At least on that run. 

That low north of Japan weakens which helps push the -epo domain east. 

12 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Coating of snow here!

But the 84 hr Nam said no

First measurable for the airports? 

Weeklies? Hearing very Niña -pna/se ridge weeks 1-6

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS had some decent changes for the benefit of weenies. That moves the -PNA trough east a bit. 

Looks like between the 1-5th we get a decent cold shot as the pna lifts out. Perhaps that’s the period to look towards on something more wintry. Unfortunately, the -pna builds back again after that 

Euro with light snow for the majority of the area 

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The MJO doesn't want get out of 7

What a boring pattern for many people  ( Northeast , Great lakes , Mid Atlantic  .

Yup. It spreads deeper into 7 but probably not enough to reshuffle the pac. I dont see io or 3/4 a anytime soon with the substance. 

55 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

I don't find it irritating.  Probably because he's a lot kinder than his "mirror image".

Agree. I have been reading his posts for 10+ years now and they’re harmless 

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

One anything changes that will cease....its not stable. Either the NAO block eases, or the RNA eases and on of the ridges will relent....or one the ridges just shifts in longitude a bit.

I just hope we don’t see the pna relax only to see the nao fade at the same time. It’s just seems the last few days the guidance has kicked the can with easing the pna. They have trended strong with the pna/southeast ridge and any changes still stuck at 300 hours 

The pattern is just stuck from the end of December into early January. Seattle and Montana are going to be icicles as the tpv moves over head 

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro srfc temps are insane up there.