Allsnow

2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

12z Euro is very close to being something special.


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Hitting the lake effect in Chicago this run 

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

The tweet from Matt that you weenied  is still there.

But not the post easternLi quoted from you 

4 hours ago, EasternLI said:

Oh no, my comment wasn't directed towards you at all. Just wanted to clarify for those who might not be familiar with Matt. I very much value your takes and the conversations we often have here.

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

 

The posts that you were referencing are still there. So I am not sure what you are talking about. You even posted yesterday that we may only have a short  window to make something work. So if this  is the case, wouldn’t you want to maximize our potential like I mentioned?

2 hours ago, EasternLI said:

Oh no, my comment wasn't directed towards you at all. Just wanted to clarify for those who might not be familiar with Matt. I very much value your takes and the conversations we often have here.

We don’t need a perfect Atlantic/pac to snow. Yes, for a blizzard it’s what we need. We can certainly get 3-6/4-8 type events with a decent pac/+nao. I’m not sure why he thinks the stars need to align to get snow in nyc 

And since when do we need a perfect pac/Atlantic to snow in nyc? If that’s the case then we might need to drop the avg snowfall 

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I rather have a favorable PNA than a favorable  NAO

 

Yup. And that Pv if positioned in Greenland can act as a block. I’m all for changing it up even if that means loosing the -nao. What’s the worst that can happen? We currently have no chance with the -nao and -pna. 

27 minutes ago, eduggs said:

With a very wintry looking radar signature, Binghamton (1600 ft) is at 32 with light snow 1mi and Ithaca (1100 ft) is 35F. Crazy warm relative to season and synoptic setup. It's like an April event.

Meanwhile in Seattle it’s 28 with a wind chill of 19

Looks like my call for p8 (along with others here) will workout. I do agree, that the +pna won’t last long given the current state of things. We will just need to make the most of it during a short window 

9 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

To me that looks good and would that not produce regular snowfall events across New England so perhaps not large ones unless we get something to dig in phase Miller b

Yup. The ridge out west might sharpen up as we get closer but that look in Ak will spill cold air south 

1 minute ago, EasternLI said:

PNA looks positive at the end of the EPS lol

Mjo finally? 

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have never waived a white flag....I just melted to vent frustration.

Stay the course! Im hopeful for January 

Nice changes with the eps this afternoon. Blocking moves into the Ap region while the low north of Japan moves into the Aleutians 

11 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

I agree. Even 2 weeks is tentative. So much depends on the total hemispheric pattern. Which we're struggling with on guidance right now. Are we confident how that's going to look? I'm not. I do see the shots it's taking currently too. It's not like it's sitting at the pole all cozy like we've seen in the past. The continued disconnect is interesting. I feel like we don't see that very often. 

Yeah, I just don’t get why the definite statements. Take it two weeks at a time. 
 

agree, the vortex is not super strong like 19/20 where it was lights out. We will have chances in January

Just now, CoastalWx said:

How many inches does the euro show?

Strat forecast can only be taken 2 weeks at a time. If we were to get a ssw it wouldn’t show up in the long range. I also question that tweet a bit, as the Pv will be taken a hit to start January 

24 minutes ago, thunderbolt said:

Why don’t you post the rest of his Tweet

5 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Gotta love SEA getting a solid burst of snow on south winds, and we’re hoping to stay below 32 with freezing rain on N winds.

Should be a fun game to watch today in Seattle 

1 minute ago, EasternLI said:

It's so hard to have an idea what actually happens. As bluewave posted in the December thread, even NOAA notes how unusual this is. But it's far far better to be where we are now instead of being stuck in 3/4 currently. 

Agree 100%

Just now, EasternLI said:

I do believe that a Pacific flip is in the cards. The jet extension is the catalyst IMO. That's happening. But what does the MJO do? Not sure. The models have tried to move it along previously this year and it got stuck. Models are terrible with the MJO and this year has been even more challenging. So I'm just trying to keep an open mind and look at it objectively. 

Yeah, it’s convection (like thunderstorms in the summer) hard to really predict so far in the future. I think we go 7-(weakly) 8-1-2

It probably gets back in 3/4 to start February unfortunately 

7 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

I'm a little wary of that Euro MJO forecast. It did try to push it to phase 8 late. The GEFS however seemed to back off a little and is slower. They were in better agreement yesterday IMO. Reminder, I'm not using those RMM charts. I'm looking at the what the ensembles are actually doing with the MJO. I'd just like to see some consistent agreement here. 

Latest olr map gets it into 8 finally but weakly. Perhaps that’s why we are seeing the ensembles flip the pac in the 11-15 day now 

5 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Nothing a lock and I'm no long range expert-- but the NAEFS is spreading colder air east-southeastward across the northern part of the country in early January.  Cold enough for wintry mixes.  Jan 2-3 as previously noted is of interest for a potentially complex sizable multi wintry element event. I did not say major snowstorm but it seems like 1/2"+ of melted wintry qpf is possible for a part of our area. NO thread yet from myself, but will rereview modeling trends late today.  Have a good day!

 

Yeah, looks like a strat hit that will send cold our way around the 1st. After that the pac looks to reshuffle around the 7th. 

@snowman19 no pattern lasts forever. It will flip just like every pattern the past few years that usually lasts 4-6 weeks

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

I remember being at 58 inches with 3 snowfall events in March lined up on the models. All three sunk south.

Only needed 10 to be second place of 67 from 02/03.

No way was going to take first place which was 92 inches in 95/96.

The tpv ended up sitting over main and sent everything south 

I thought we had a shot at the record during the winter of 13/14 but march ended up cold/dry