Allsnow

There can be a lag but it’s not 100% of the time. You won’t get high amplitude in the cold phases as it doesn’t work that way. But your colder period could very well be correct. It’s really all a guess at this point lol

Hopefully, we can get a p8 response. I still think we improve the pattern by the end of the month. But as you said it can’t really get much worst then this weekend lol. Even in p7 we wouldn’t be bias warm, I would think it would be more ups and downs between warm/cold.

Looks like on those maps the mjo is on the border of 6/7 on the 29th (which might indicate it slows down in p6) then by feb 3 P8-1? And forcing in the western pac? If I’m correct, then that matches the Vp maps well. I also like the substance forming in the warm phases.

Scrape for us but a nice hit for the Mid Atlantic

12z euro will be further northwest this run for tomorrow night

The roundy plots continue to show the mjo wave getting into p8. I think one of the reasons the GEFS are stuck in the Niña pattern is because of its mjo forecast. It keeps it in 6 which imo is wrong. GEFS euro

Nice job by the euro! Solid coating of snow here overnight

It’s not going to be too dry

For tonight

I read your post to him. Great stuff. Let’s hope the Scandinavian ridge can get the wave 1 hits going.

I agree. Most of the time these warm ups are dirty in January. We are usually not under clear sky’s like December 2015 or January 2007.

Next weekend continues to look record breaking with the warmth.

Euro continues to show some snow for the area tonight.

Yeah, the -epo was the only thing favorable on that map. I got more then half my seasonal snowfall that weekend. Unfortunately, the mid level warmth came in quicker then forecast(as always) for that Sunday night event. It quickly turned the snow to rain on the coast.

@tombo82685 stated, the wave 2 activity usually is a good indicator for cold shots. It worked very well in 2014.

Yeah, the base state was Niña so we got that response in February. -pna with troughs diving into the west coast.

Yeah. The atmosphere was more Niña like and ENSO was Niño during 2019. We really never got a true nino response in that 8-1-2 pass during February. I definitely agree that the mjo wave could go 7-cod at the end of the month. We should improve the pattern to a more of a overrunning look later in the month. As you said in your outlook, the pac isn’t going to play ball this winter. The PDO killed any hope of that. I still don’t see any strat help in the near future. Do you think it starts taking punches in February? The Scandinavian block developing might be a sign of a -nao coming in February.

Next Friday will probably be ridiculously warm for early January

Next weekend has a chance to be real nice before any rain. Friday through Sunday

Yep. That second storm in December with the transient 50/50 dug a bit to much out west and kicked up the ridge. Most of the area was between 32-34 with rain.

You can see substance developing in the warm phases on the roundy plots. Let’s hope that’s the case after we get out of p6. But it’s in the long range and convection is unpredictable

It will probably get worst before it gets better. With no strat help we will be at the mercy of the mjo. It doesn’t look like this should linger in p5 (def a worry with the warm waters there) as the rmm plots have been correcting closer to the colder phases. Until then all we can do is enjoy the warmth coming. hopefully the roundy plots are correct with this mjo getting into p7-p8 by the 20th. If not winter weather/cold will be in big trouble for February.