Allsnow

11 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Still rain for 2/3rd of us if I am reading correctly 

Next weekend is going to cut into the lakes. If we can get a cold high pressure with some cad perhaps it starts as some snow. I would keep expectations in check with that one. The better patterns starts after next weekend 

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

While you hope we get a favorable storm track for heavy snows at the coast, just pointing out a colder pattern coming around the 20th isn’t a guarantee. That’s why storm tracks are so important. Late last January with a similar 500 mb pattern we only got some light snows. 

Yep. We very well could swing and Miss. let’s hope for better luck this time. Last January we missed a storm to our south that crushed DCA. 

12 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

GFS is not cooperating-WHERE IS THE PRECIP MAP FOR THE GEFS ????

Why would you be looking at the gfs that far out? It will change at 00z. You use the ensembles at that range. If it makes you feel better the euro has a costal snowstorm in that timeframe 

5 hours ago, SACRUS said:

9:41

 

60 here.

 

34 minutes ago, tmagan said:

Actually, we have had colder days in August, twice in Central Park history has a daily August maximum failed to reach 60 degrees.

Great to see both of you here! Hope all is well 

13 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Time will tell - now you have committed to 7-8-1-2 - lets see how long it takes to find a reliable plot that shows that - lets see how long it takes for the models to come around and start showing a more suppressed storm track in the medium range after day 5  - NAO is still showing no signs of going negative anytime soon -same with the AO

I have provided proof with the roundy plots which you fail to acknowledge. I also have the ensembles all agreeing on a pattern change. Those plots you posted are off the GEFS and only going out to jan 16. So if the pattern is supposed to flip after the 20th what do they prove? 

12 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

I'm not expecting much. Strictly anecdotal, but good winters ( well, most would consider this a "good" winter so far, due to mild temps ) in my experience usually show an early signal with a cold, icy or snowy Dec. Likewise, dud winters usually follow snowless or mild Dec. But we can still sneak in a good storm, like Jan 2016. That said, I have been following PB's analysis and I give him great weight, so hope he is right.

All we can say is the pattern looks to improve after the 20th. I get it, you can’t shovel potential! We very could score a nice storm or continue the bad luck. For us to get a storm we need a better pattern so we have that.

4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I highly doubt it just drops into the cod like that. I can however see a muted trip through 8 1 2.

I’m not sure how many time it needs to be said that the rmm plots have a bias for cod at the end. Yet, he continues to rip and read them while they correct in front of him. This will be going 7-8-1-2. Yes, it will probably be muted in the colder phases as it’s not going to have strong amplitude like the warm phases. 
 

Even if that plot was to be correct, it would be bias cold because the mjo wave is closer to the cold phases.

25 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Transient? That would stink. 

We don’t need some uber -nao to trigger all the cold dry folks 

28 minutes ago, frd said:

And, as as Don stated yesterday,  that higher amplified state in 7 increases the odds of snowfall in the East towards the end of Jan. 

bluewave,  any thoughts on the developing NAO domain block we are seeing in the GFS and the Euro ?

Do you believe it will indeed be transient in nature and then giving way to the more pronounced - EPO  ?

I know Isotherm thought if we were going to get any significant pv disruptions and  a -NAO it would be later in the winter. Wondering the implications for Feb and even March and what happens too with the NAM state.     

My thoughts are it will be transient in nature but that’s all we really need to capitalize on something. The Scandinavian ridge is really a nice precursor to a -nao. 

34 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

KNYC up to 65 at 11. Already 2F over the previous record. 

I didn’t think we would be this clear a few days ago. It’s really off to the races at this point. Out and about around town It feels like a April day. 

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Funny how similar that forecast 500 mb pattern is to January 20-31 last year.

 

Do you think this change is all from the mjo? My guess is yes, I don’t see why else would be changing the pac like this. 
 

Up to 62 here now! Models did a great job with the warmth. 

Nice call @Isotherm! Looks like the Pv will start taking shots at the end of the month 

Hard not to excited about this look on the GEFS and eps for after the 20th. +pna/-nao/ and trough axis over Chicago. Enjoy the warmth! Things are about to change 

Torching here under clear sky’s. Pushing 60 already here. Get out and enjoy it!

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

NAO remaining positive possibly - AO could also stay positive

The pattern change is all a result from the mjo. We won’t see help from the nao probably not until February if at all. The Ao will be around neutral at the end of the month. This is all from the +pna and -epo 

The eps had some transient blocking at the end of the month. 

50 minutes ago, larrye said:

So what is the consensus opinion on when the pattern changes and when we have the next real "threat"? I looked at the 00z GFS 850 Temp/Precip and it kinda looks like nothing "coastal" (to my amateur eyes) in the longer term until maybe around 1/23 except inland runners. And I didn't check the upper air patterns at all. Thoughts?

The pattern gets better after the 20th. We have a chance at a snow to rain type event next weekend. After that it looks stormy with cold around. But yes, if you’re looking for a classic snowstorm it will be after the 20th. Incredible agreement right now with all the ensembles on a +pna and -epo look. 

23 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Depends on your location. Few of the storms outside of Jan 2016 were much to talk about in my region, relative to others. Only the last March 2018 storm delivered ( about 9 inches give or take ) and we did have the Easter Monday snow of 3-5 as a consolation prize, but other than that it has been near misses, subsidence, mixing issues, dry air, you name it.

Winners and losers in every storm. We haven’t had it bad in middlesex county since 2009. I’ll gladly take 4-8 over getting skunked completely 

20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The folded-over EPO  block links up with the building PNA ridge around 1/20-1/21 and the flow becomes extremely meridional, so I could definitely see there being support for a larger scale threat a day later or so. (1/22ish)

Obviously caveats apply as the look could change, but the reason the pattern has been pretty excited is because of how meridional it looks. That will keep the threats rolling in with a ton of cold over us.

Yep. The ridge off the west coast should keep things active and the cold/dry debbies at bay. 

Just now, Brian5671 said:

early Jan 2018 storm was widespread I believe-that came at the end of a bitter cold 10 day outbreak-was all snow I think

Yes, but I believe that was a bit east of the classic benchmark track. Our last east coast blizzard from DCA to Bos was back in 2016. 

13 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Just a little shift. Classic NAM. 

It’s been a rough winter for the models. The euro and nam seem to be too amped in the short range. 

28 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Like I said, mixing issues with KU  benchmark storm tracks are not a problem. We had some mixing issues with the last March 2018 storm and still went 10-20 inches of snow. But these 1-3 or 2-4 front end thumps then sleet or rain have been a big disappointment since last winter. That’s  what  we get with storm tracks to our west that cut or hug. Hopefully, we return  to a rapidly deepening benchmark storm track.

KU/benchmark tracks don’t grow on trees. We have been extremely lucky since 2009. Many on the coast have become spoiled With the amount of snow that have had. It’s no shock that we have regressed to the mean. The last area wide snowstorm was definitely 2016. We are obviously over due now. 

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It wasn’t that long ago. We had plenty of benchmark storm tracks with double digit snowfall at the coast right through March 2018. Last winter we started with the cutter and hugger storm tracks where interior sections had the heaviest amounts. 

Yeah, but that first March 2018 storm took a perfect track and still skunked the coast. We had some nice track last winter but no cold air around. With the pac improving I wouldn’t be shocked to see the track you are looking for. But  to not expect mixing issues along the coast in any storm is unrealistic expectations.

Edit: not implying you have unrealistic expectations 

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We’ll know the storm track has improved when we get an amped system with no P-Type issues. That’s what we have been waiting for. People at the coast will be happy when they get all snow from start to finish.

It’s probably been since 2016 since we have had that. Even with a perfect track, people on the coast should expect P-Type issues. How many storms can you recall that it’s snowing at High Point And Acy?