Allsnow

On 1/8/2020 at 8:51 PM, tombo82685 said:

False and false.

There is a complete atmospheric journal on slow and fast mjo and also the lag each response has

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/MWR-D-16-0352.1

and here is the cpc website that shows composite lag of each

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/LaggedComposites/description.shtml

@jbenedet here are two articles about lag response for each mjo phase. 

The eps went towards the GEFS with the -epo ridging. That’s a real cold look

6 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

MJO in phase 6 def gives me pause/concern that Saturday doesn’t end up colder/snowier than current guidance.

Admittedly though, I haven’t been following the MJO until very recently...So how strong this signal is vs the other players and climo is something I’m still piecing together...

To me the only takeaway is the MJO is potentially calling BS on significant East Coast confluence/troughing ahead of this shortwave...I.E. current model guidance for a weak +NAO/-NAO setting up around that timeframe may be faux or transient—NAO end up more positive? 

Hopefully someone here who follows MJO more closely can offer a better opinion on this...

I think a lot depends on the wave break from the mid week storm for northern New England. Most of the guidance is really blowing that up so it helps with the confluence. The main player imo is the high pressure. That’s a real strong high moving in at 1044. 
 

The mjo response in p6 is more of southeast ridge. The euro was amped at 12z which raised hgts in the East. We have seen this throughout the winter season with the euro. It will be amped then slowly back away from it. It is currently the most amped up global from the 12z suite.

24 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Hopefully, we can move past the the southern stream suppression mode of recent times. The trough axis was also too Far East on 1-13-19. That one was right after the MJO phase 7-8 passage.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/index_20190113.html

Some Mid Atlantic crush jobs on the idv eps with that closed low look. 
 

It’s definitely going to get active along the east coast. Eps has a potential costal the middle of next week and the following weekend. I like the the axis of the trough around the 25th. 

The eps mean mirrors the op. 2-4/3-5 type event with a stronger primary. 
 

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Let’s hope that the 21-23rd potential can make it far enough north. Eric Webb did a great job with the stats. MJO phase 7 is the best phase for winter storm potential in North Carolina during January. 

 

 

The mean trough might be too Far East for us. FWIW the euro was a close miss. 

That cold shot next week has strat support with the pv taking a right hook. 

Just miss a 990mb snowstorm next Thursday on the euro. It will most definitely change by 00z but we are finally seeing the change to a more optimistic snow pattern. 

25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'd still take that run....some taint, but good thump first. I just want everything covered again with several inches and then work from there when the good pattern sets in.

Yeah, that’s some Barney colored type cold coming after this system. Would be nice to lay some snow down for that. 

12z euro 996 over Chicago while 00z had a 1008 over central Indiana 

The main difference between the Gfs and euro is just how much it digs out in the Midwest. The Gfs has less digging and lowers hgts out east. The euro is also stronger with the energy out west 

2 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

0c line is in the mid Atlantic 

Could be the bias of the Euro.  Interesting week ahead.

We can’t have it that amped out in the Midwest. One thing to look for is how Chicago makes out. If they remain all snow it’s better for us. 

Euro is 2-4 along the coast and 4-8 north and west. 

992 into southeast Canada. Front end snows move in Saturday afternoon. Coast goes to rain rather quickly 

Going to be incorrect on my guess lol. Euro is further north at 12z with the primary. It’s over Chicago now compared to central Illinois at 00z

1044 high over the lakes....

The euro has a 990 southeast of Maine for the middle of week system 

12 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Lol, reading the thread you'd think the 12z GFS increased totals but instead it cut back a little. Anyway, locked and loaded for 2-4". Dewpoints look like they'll be our friend.

I don’t understand the point of this post.

5 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Precip not as heavy especially on recent runs but that could change or adjust a bit.

It’s all about the forcing. It obviously something we won’t know until we get closer. I just checked the high strength for November 2018 it was 1035. This is supposed to be around 1040, so stronger currently. But 1035 is nothing to sneeze at. @snowman19 it’s one thing to be argumentative with facts it another to be argumentative just for the sake of it. 

8 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

This setup is absolutely nothing at all like November, 2018

Why? Strong artic high with overrunning precipitation. We turned to rain in November 2018 also. The 10-1 maps are not grossly over done with the mid levels so cold beforehand. The kuchera maps are even snowier! Yes, lots of time left for this to go either way. 

4 minutes ago, David-LI said:

Well if you want a stronger system for Thursday the Canadian is delivering it

Nice thump on the cmc before the area goes to rain. 

Nice 1044 high in southeast Canada on the cmc. 

3 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Cmc is more amped with Thursdays low

Yep. I know what the pretty snow maps are showing but keep expectations low. 
 

This is probably a 2-4 type deal along the coast with more north and west. Lots of time left so hopefully it trends better.

Just now, forkyfork said:

this is a good sign 

Yeah the high was stronger and further west. We need to root for a stronger storm in New England on Thursday.

4-8 thump for the area on the Gfs. It’s nice to see but keep expectations in check. Models have been horrible this winter and having a low in upstate ny isn’t ideal. It’s really all about that high pressure for the nyc metro.