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Posts posted by Allsnow
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1 hour ago, jfklganyc said:
Thank you
As I said above, several days AN...as of now
Incorrect. Next week will be below normal. What model shows several days next week above normal?
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9 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:
Wasnt that the cutter winter just like this one?
You can get cutters in any winter.
97-98 was a strong El Niño with a very fast pac jet. We literally never had a chance at snow. This winter is nothing like that one- 1
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The coldest stretch of weather I have experienced was probably December 2017. I believe we were below frz for two weeks. No, it wasn’t in 1852 when we skated on ponds and Manhattan was covered in snow all winter.
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4 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:
I think the big difference between stinker years today and 30-40 years ago ( and I was around for them ) is you did not have the ridiculous warmth. You still knew it was winter, alright. And if you walked to the bus stop without gloves on it would sting....
You will get your fill of cold dry next week.
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16 minutes ago, David-LI said:
Are we gonna have brutal cold followed by rain storms rinse repeat the whole winter?
18z gfs has the perfect costal track for the 25th. Unfortunately, the bl is torch with the lakes low. At least the cutters will be gone after Saturday
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2 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:
Let’s be honest weather isn’t exact science and models are usually wrong. Past 2-3 days I don’t believe it
But that doesn’t change the fact that this is a bad h5 set up for snow in nyc. Can it change back to more of a look we had a few days ago? Sure! But I wouldn’t bet on it.
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8 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:
And the pattern that was changing...stays exactly the same
Cutter to rain
Let’s see how last week of January does
To be fair the real pattern change doesn’t start until after the 20th. We are currently reshuffling the pac to a better look. If it were to snow Saturday it would be a bonus before the pac improves. The wheels of change are already in motion as tomorrow will be the last warm day for a while.
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5 minutes ago, Snow88 said:
So now the pattern isnt going to change ? What is it ?
The pattern will improve after the 20th but the -epo/poleward pna has been waffling on the guidance.
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11 minutes ago, forkyfork said:
the longer range EPS doesn't look as cold as yesterday's runs did
Yep. We are loosing the -epo look and are left with +pna and split flow look. The reshuffle around the 25th could hurt temps around here.
next week looks cold and dry
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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:
Yeah them and I think Philly is even worse....my guess is theyll score in the upcoming pattern sometime between Jan 22-Feb 5 or so.
Yeah, Philadelphia is at less then a inch. It would be fitting for that to happen next week. The storm coming into the northwest is kicking the ridge East. It’s not a bad pattern for a southeast snowstorm lol. But I agree, we will have chance in this pattern. Eventually something will work for us down here.
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Next Wednesday is definitely a good pattern for a southeast snowstorm. That would be fitting lol. Euro is very close for the southeast
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1 minute ago, jm1220 said:
We’re not at the point yet where the SE ridge won’t be a big problem and storms won’t try to cut for the lakes. Maybe at the end of the month if the MJO helps. We have a decent airmass to start but the strong south winds will moderate that fast. I’m personally not in the mood for another slushy inch or two to a washout but it’s what the pattern supports. Often these trend more amped at the end anyway (and we’re nowhere near the end with this)
Euro is more amped and north this run. Very little snow for the metro area and 1-3 north and west
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Need to stop the amped trend or this will turn quickly into festive flakes then rain
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Just now, psuhoffman said:
Couple things... I thought Snowy was calling for a cold/snowy second half of winter...did he change his mind on that?
But more importantly, not sure I get what their point is wrt the IO base state. It is true that a wave near the dateline is "better" but a phase 2/3 in February is a cold look also.
So not sure what that was about...
The roundy plots have this going into p8 to start February then dying and convection starting in p2 (standing wave). As you posted p2 is a cold look for February. The rmm plots I think are picking up on the kelvin wave in p6. Which is why they are curling back earlier
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Just now, NEG NAO said:
instead of just being critical of what I post - also add your 2 cents - what you think will happen - if you have a better map post it !
I did. It’s posted above. My thoughts haven’t changed. 2-4 for I-95
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18z eps even more amped with less snow along the coast. Let’s hope this levels out soon.
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3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:
GFS slower-turning into a Sat night event
Yep. More amped this run. Snowfall 2-4 along the coast a bit more inland. Pretty much what everyone expects
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Yep, weeklies are great looking until mid/end of February. Then the Niña pattern returns with ridge in the East. That makes sense imo with the mjo going around the horn. And I wouldn’t mind a warm start to March this year.
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5 minutes ago, Enigma said:
Absolutely incorrect. Completely different setups. Coastal snow will breakout with isentropic lift from advancing warm front running into a very decent CAD signature. Chicago is none of that.
This isn't a SWFE or gradient type system.
Yes, our snow is coming from the WAA precipitation. My reference to Chicago is that fact if they have precipitation problems that means the best WAA will be to the metros north. You can see that on the euro idv with a more amped up low. The WAA ends up moving more southwest to northeast. Perhaps why the eps mean has a tight gradient by the coast
00z euro had the low in central Indiana with no Ptype issues for Chicago and better waa fo us.
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2 minutes ago, sferic said:
All snow in the Catskills?
Yep and then some! Enjoy
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January 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread
in New York City Metro
Posted
You will have colder days next week