Allsnow

49 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

 

I knew we could count on Don to get us some numbers confirming that warm winters and warm periods in winters have been around for a while.  

Yes. I made a comment in the discussion thread that the  pond skating in 1907 had to be horrible. 

4 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Yes, in 170 years of record keeping there have been 5 warmer years, and two of them were from before 1950. Three of the 6 (including this year), were in the past 22 years (1998, 2007, 2019). The prior years were 1907, 1932 and 1950.

Essentially, in the 148 years before 1998, there were 3 warmer years, and in the 22 years since, there were 3 years in the top 6. 

This is all dumb anyway, as the earth has warmed only 1 degree C since 1850, so you will still have great extremes, cold and warm. -5, becomes -3, which is still pretty ****ing cold. Nothing dumber than "it snowed last week, global warming is a hoax"

100% agree. Perhaps in 50 years our winters will be more like North Carolina.  imo are extremes have gotten more extreme as their seems to me no middle of the road anymore. 

4 minutes ago, psv88 said:

What?

My comment was tongue in cheek. But some have posted as if this first half of January is the new normal and winters of yore are over. When you look at the stats most of those warm starts to January were in the early 1900s

51 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

January 1-15, 2020 will very likely finish with a mean temperature of 42.8°. That would rank as the 6th warmest start to January in New York City (Central Park).

The five warmer years were:

2007: 46.4°
1932: 44.0°
1950: 43.6°
1907: 43.5°
1998: 43.3°

I guess no pond skating back in 1932? Snoski and weatherpruf would have been jumping off their horses.

just reading this thread you would think the warmest first half of This month has happen in the last decade.

14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It certainly looks like we are moving into more of an El Niño pattern. The big AAM rise and strong WWB pattern are classic El Niño features. February is typically our best month of winter with an El Niño. The ridge over SE Canada that the models are indicating around the 25th is the January +AAM composite. That ridge usually pulls back in February allowing a colder pattern. But we can always use some help from the -AO and -NAO to make any El Niño February better.

 

 

Nice post! Yeah, you’re 100% correct about the +AAM. We just need that to relax a bit to pull the ridge back west. Great stuff @bluewave. I don’t have access to the AAM charts. 

15 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

850's well below 0  still well entrenched over the whole area at 12z Saturday - also Sunday 12Z - anybody have 0Z Sunday 850 ? 

Ditto to @binbisso post. The flatter look out west allows for a colder tick. We also do better with the waa precipitation 

Euro a bit weaker this run with the primary. Allows for the area to hang onto snow a bit longer. 

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

and + NAO - no blocking allowing the cold air to escape and no chance for a redevelopment of the storm to the south

Yes, if we had a -nao it might lock the high in. But that doesn’t change the fact the low is going To  track into the Great Lakes. Too much digging off the west coast to force this underneath us. 

1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

Cfs has the MJO going into 8.

I think it does go into 8 and then 1. We should have a favorable period.

Me too Anthony! 

-pna is the reason for the poor storm track 

1 minute ago, White Gorilla said:

Here today, gone tomorrow? 

Haha. 
 

Very nino like run. -epo/stj/+pna/Aleutian low/ Pv north of Hudson Bay. 
 

1 minute ago, psv88 said:

What are we for January, +15? Incredible warmth continues, low was only 41 last night

January 2007 like. Incredible 

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Nice look on the GEFS for the 25th.

-epo returns on the GEFS 

Nice look on the GEFS for the 25th.

29 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Yea, it’s pretty clear at this point that 2/15 or 2/05 isn’t on the way, there isn’t even so much as a hint of that and you would be able to see it by now

Well those years are historic for a reason. We can’t see into February until next week, most likely why we don’t have any hints currently

All I’m saying is the pattern going forward isn’t last weekend. We will have chances with cold air around. The nino esque look has me hopeful for a typical cold snowy February.

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

with no ATL blocking, I would not say cutters are gone-even with cold highs, there's the risk a storm slips b/w the 2 and goes to the lakes.   Agree it's a better pattern, but can't agree that it's a good or great pattern.

But now we have blocking in central Canada. We don’t need a -nao to snow in nyc. We had that for the first half of December and got squat. 
 

And yes we can get cutters in any winter. January 2014 had them even during our good periods. But with this look I would favor a costal track over a cutter to Detroit. You have been around long enough to know we don’t need a great pattern in January to snow.

A very Miller b esque look on the gfs for the 25th. I hope some can step away from the ledge with that for a few hours. I know I know, it’s not December 2017 type cold 

7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

been hearing about a great pattern for 2 years...not much to show for it.   Like Allsnow said above the chances for an 05 or 15 recovery are slim.     Hopefully we can get a snowstorm or two...I'd be happy with that at this point.  Anything more than that would be a huge win.

We will have opportunities  coming up the next few weeks. The reshuffling was on the ensembles for the 26th but the signal is bit stronger now. 
 

By just reading this thread you would think next week La Niña is coming and we will torch again. 
We still have ridging our west with a split flow along with a northwest flow from Canada. The cutters are gone after Saturday but most people won’t acknowledge that because it means little for their backyard. 
 

Agree with @bluewave, the +amm is probably hurting the -epo and the scandy ridging is fading. Which it return is allowing higher hgts in central Canada. It’s still not a bad look and trust me if it looked like trash I would acknowledge it. 

3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

At this point I would say just bring on spring but I already know it'll be another lousy one. 

I can already see the NAO/AO tanking as we flip to March. 

I agree that we are past the point where winter will be saved by some epic 2015/2005 type run. I say this because I just don’t see those cards lining up for us. That being said, we will get a storm eventually. Probably sometime in February 

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

here is the NAM but still not in its more accurate range of 60 Hours

Sleety look just south of the metro on the nam 

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

seeing 93 and 07 in there are interesting.    89 was garbage the rest of the way for the most part.

Didn’t 89 have a Big Mid Atlantic storm??

Just now, donsutherland1 said:

The preliminary AO value today was +3.622.

The January 1-15, AO average was +3.560. That is the second highest such figure on record since daily AO values were recorded beginning in 1950. It is only the fourth case on record where the AO averaged +3.000 or above during the January 1-15 period. The three prior cases were:

1989 +3.480
1993 +3.886
2007 +3.342

In two of the three prior cases, the AO averaged > 0 during February. In all three cases, the AO averaged > 0 in March.

More importantly, all three prior cases saw a colder than normal February in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions.

For the December 1-January 15 period, the AO has averaged +1.429. The AO has been positive on 70% days and negative on 30% days. It has also been at +3.000 or above on 33% days. Mean seasonal snowfall in New York City for the 11 cases where the December 1-January 15 AO average was +1.000 or above was 18.5". When the 3 cases with an AO average of +2.000 are excluded, the mean seasonal snowfall figure was 18.9".

 

Incredible stuff! Thanks Don. We might see that typical backend niño February 

IMO the niño look can get it done this time of year. We don’t need -10 sitting over our heads that leads to cold dry next week.

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

You can see the models adjusting milder around the 25th now that they have such a strong AAM rise. This is occurring as the record MJO enters the Western Pacific phases. We are getting a very strong WWB with this and a more El Niño looking regime. The stronger ridge building into SE Canada around the 25th is part of this pattern.

 

Do you think will then get more of a classic Nino February? The stj is definitely going to become more active and with are at the coldest climo part of the year. We don’t need -25 over are heads to snow in late January 

1 hour ago, weatherpruf said:

What happened to the pattern flip after the 20th? Can any of these models really be that good? This winter has stinker written all over it, but that's just gut feeling. I'll wait and see what happens, because what else can one do?

The entire h5 set up is changing after the 20th. It’s not going to be consistently cold for weeks on end. We will have times where it will warm up. Today will be the last warm day for a while.