Allsnow

Looks like a cold shot to start December after whatever storm goes by to end November

That’s all I’m really alluding to. Yes, as you said we had a tiny ridge for those months but the flow was split still kind of zonal at h5.

This is why I think 11/12 is a bad analog. We are not getting a typical Niña response and the PV might weaken for the second half of the winter.

That flow was still basically from Seattle or southern BC off a flat ridge. Not exactly a ideal pna rise for us.

That map doesn’t look like a +pna to me. It’s tough to tell with the hgt lines but doesn’t look like it. I don’t see any downstream trough in the east. Unless you’re talking about some garbage hgt rise in the west. I don’t recall +pna in December 18 or January 2019. We had a dateline ridge with a -pna. I remember we had blocking in early December that produced a snowstorm north/west. January 2019 we had recorded breaking warmth with a southeast ridge and -pna combo. March 2018 we had a snowy weekend with a -pna/-epo combo.

I might be in the minority but I feel the cutter/hugger track the last few years is more of a cause of the -pna then ENSO state

This would be fun if true . This is a niño look in a Niña ENSO lol

Looks like a active STJ and +pna to start December. We could have a chance with that set up

Yeah, I don’t think we had a ridge spike like that in the west for years.

Overnight looks like more of a trend to have the Pv move west of AK in the extended. Hopefully this allows for the pac puke to be flushed from Canada.

The darkest of the blues are over the Aleutians and ridge is in the west. I don’t think that’s a ideal snap shot imo. But I agree, this is more of a niño look then Niña for December

Just happy to see that pig moving away from Ak. Rolling forward (la la land range) I would think it should improve

Get the pig out of Ak with that PNA you will cool off quickly in Canada

Going to be a nice storm in the east at the end of November

If we get a flow from Canada, their above normal is below here, it could potentially work for us as we work into mid December. Above all else we need a good pacific to have a chance

GEFS going ham with +pna to start December.

Agree. But it depends on where the ridge sets up. If it’s not off the west coast then the southeast ridge won’t pump that much. If we were entering a -epo/-pna pattern then I would say absolutely the ridge will be on roids A fast pac with a +pna could allow disturbances to be more progressive also.

Just keep in mind their above normal is probably below normal for us. So if the flow is from Canada it will get cool in the East. By late December/early January Canada’s avg highs are way below freezing

The mjo hanging out in cod is not typical of a Niña ENSO either. Normally we would have it in 4/5/6, which is the phases you don’t want.

If we can get the models to continue trending with the +pna it would offer us a chance as we get deeper into December

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Great post. I would definitely sign for January 2000 after last year’s debacle.