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Allsnow

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Everything posted by Allsnow

  1. Allsnow
    Enjoy the snow today as I don’t think we will see much sustained cold going forward. Looks like my idea of this getting into p8 is going to fail. We will be into p7 at the end of the month so perhaps we pull a storm off. After that we are going to head to p5/6 as the kelvin wave is getting stronger. Wash rinse repeat. The RMM plots might have been correct for the wrong reasons earlier this month but they have merit now. Just one of those winters that whatever can go wrong will go wrong. We can always pull off a storm but it will be hard with temps above normal. If we have any hope of sustained cold/snow in the second half of February we need to see the Pv weaken. Convection is always hard to predict in the future. Those looking for above normal days are about to get more. The uber Pv, -PDO, +AAM, and warm pool south of Ak were all huge players in this failed winter.
  2. Allsnow
    Kpsv 1.2
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  4. Allsnow
    Final call KNYC 2 KEWR 3 KLGA 1.5 KJFK .9 KBDR 4
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  6. Allsnow
    Ord 2.5 at 9pm
  7. Allsnow
    How much in Naperville?
  8. Allsnow
    Yep. What I wanted to see
  9. Allsnow
    Yeah, I think nyc and immediate burbs have to 7-8pm before the change. Euro cut back on qpf this run which ticked accumulations down. I would like to see the nam loose that warm layer tonight at 00z.
  10. Allsnow
    Hdrp
  11. Allsnow
    18z euro
  12. Allsnow
  13. Allsnow
    The nam has not shown the higher amounts like the Globals. The other short range guidance has bought into the global ideas but not the nams. I will be interested to see if they cave tonight or continue to forecast that warm layer.
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  16. Allsnow
    They do. It’s been extended south
  17. Allsnow
    We just can’t shake the lower hgts in Ak. What once looked like a sustainable cold stretch next week has morphed into a few cold days. Coldest part of winter(especially further north then me) we don’t need a ice box but we are above normal after Thursday. Eps hinting at a swfe last week of January as snow mean creeps up.
  18. Allsnow
    That map was updated at 400pm and advisories were extended to somerset and middlesex counties.
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  21. Allsnow
    Not expecting a repeat but February 2008 had a nice over performing swfe. Forecast was for 2-4 which ended up being 6-9.
  22. Allsnow
    -PDO means more of a -pna correct? Which has been another red flag lately, the inability for the pac to corporate. I was reading that warm waters south of ak might not Be that good for us anymore. It might be a magnet for low pressures. I believe 09–10/02-03 didn’t have those warm pool there. The lag effect has been noticeable in p8 for DJF. Question @bluewave @Isotherm why no lag effect in p8 during November? Shorter wave lengths?
  23. Allsnow
  24. Allsnow
    Euro ticks colder and snowier for the metro.
  25. Allsnow
    Agree. This low level cold is no joke thanks to the 1044 high in place. This is your typical swfe climo. Driscoll bridge will be another good dividing line
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