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Everything posted by Allsnow
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January 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread
Allsnow replied to Rtd208's topic in New York City Metro
Enjoy the snow today as I don’t think we will see much sustained cold going forward. Looks like my idea of this getting into p8 is going to fail. We will be into p7 at the end of the month so perhaps we pull a storm off. After that we are going to head to p5/6 as the kelvin wave is getting stronger. Wash rinse repeat. The RMM plots might have been correct for the wrong reasons earlier this month but they have merit now. Just one of those winters that whatever can go wrong will go wrong. We can always pull off a storm but it will be hard with temps above normal. If we have any hope of sustained cold/snow in the second half of February we need to see the Pv weaken. Convection is always hard to predict in the future. Those looking for above normal days are about to get more. The uber Pv, -PDO, +AAM, and warm pool south of Ak were all huge players in this failed winter. -
Wintry mix potential weekend of Jan 18-19, 2020
Allsnow replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Kpsv 1.2- 1,119 replies
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Wintry mix potential weekend of Jan 18-19, 2020
Allsnow replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
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Wintry mix potential weekend of Jan 18-19, 2020
Allsnow replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Final call KNYC 2 KEWR 3 KLGA 1.5 KJFK .9 KBDR 4- 1,119 replies
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Wintry mix potential weekend of Jan 18-19, 2020
Allsnow replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
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Ord 2.5 at 9pm
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How much in Naperville?
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Wintry mix potential weekend of Jan 18-19, 2020
Allsnow replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Yep. What I wanted to see- 1,119 replies
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Wintry mix potential weekend of Jan 18-19, 2020
Allsnow replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Yeah, I think nyc and immediate burbs have to 7-8pm before the change. Euro cut back on qpf this run which ticked accumulations down. I would like to see the nam loose that warm layer tonight at 00z.- 1,119 replies
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Wintry mix potential weekend of Jan 18-19, 2020
Allsnow replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Hdrp- 1,119 replies
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Wintry mix potential weekend of Jan 18-19, 2020
Allsnow replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
18z euro- 1,119 replies
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Wintry mix potential weekend of Jan 18-19, 2020
Allsnow replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
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Wintry mix potential weekend of Jan 18-19, 2020
Allsnow replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
The nam has not shown the higher amounts like the Globals. The other short range guidance has bought into the global ideas but not the nams. I will be interested to see if they cave tonight or continue to forecast that warm layer.- 1,119 replies
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Wintry mix potential weekend of Jan 18-19, 2020
Allsnow replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
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Wintry mix potential weekend of Jan 18-19, 2020
Allsnow replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
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Wintry mix potential weekend of Jan 18-19, 2020
Allsnow replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
They do. It’s been extended south- 1,119 replies
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We just can’t shake the lower hgts in Ak. What once looked like a sustainable cold stretch next week has morphed into a few cold days. Coldest part of winter(especially further north then me) we don’t need a ice box but we are above normal after Thursday. Eps hinting at a swfe last week of January as snow mean creeps up.
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Wintry mix potential weekend of Jan 18-19, 2020
Allsnow replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
That map was updated at 400pm and advisories were extended to somerset and middlesex counties.- 1,119 replies
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Wintry mix potential weekend of Jan 18-19, 2020
Allsnow replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
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Wintry mix potential weekend of Jan 18-19, 2020
Allsnow replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
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Wintry mix potential weekend of Jan 18-19, 2020
Allsnow replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Not expecting a repeat but February 2008 had a nice over performing swfe. Forecast was for 2-4 which ended up being 6-9.- 1,119 replies
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January 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread
Allsnow replied to Rtd208's topic in New York City Metro
-PDO means more of a -pna correct? Which has been another red flag lately, the inability for the pac to corporate. I was reading that warm waters south of ak might not Be that good for us anymore. It might be a magnet for low pressures. I believe 09–10/02-03 didn’t have those warm pool there. The lag effect has been noticeable in p8 for DJF. Question @bluewave @Isotherm why no lag effect in p8 during November? Shorter wave lengths? -
Wintry mix potential weekend of Jan 18-19, 2020
Allsnow replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
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Wintry mix potential weekend of Jan 18-19, 2020
Allsnow replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Euro ticks colder and snowier for the metro.- 1,119 replies
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Wintry mix potential weekend of Jan 18-19, 2020
Allsnow replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Agree. This low level cold is no joke thanks to the 1044 high in place. This is your typical swfe climo. Driscoll bridge will be another good dividing line- 1,119 replies
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