Allsnow

15 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I expect a full cave by the GEFS to the EPS, CFS, GEPS guidance: 

 

 

Highly unlikely…the euro mjo plots already go towards the GEFS with more p1/2 longer. 

Mix of wintry precipitation here. Glad the nws issues the WWA 

50 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

The 18z run of RGEM is saying maybe we get up to an inch of snow tomorrow morning. That certainly would be nice.

Gfs similar 

47 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

This could easily be far more impactful at least here than the Friday event

Nws said no 

With forecast QPF totals and confidence in spatial coverage being
relatively low, this is expected to be more a nuisance event.
Roads are likely already fairly well-treated from the previous
round of wintry weather a few days ago, which should help limit
impacts on the morning and afternoon commutes. A light film or
glaze of ice on some trees is possible, but would be far from
causing downed limbs or power lines. Winds will also be
relatively light through the day tomorrow out of the northeast
from 5 to 10 mph.

Frz rain looks impactful tomorrow morning. Wouldn’t be shocked to see WWA go out 

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

...now gone ...  

The GEF based telecon lost the +PNA surge too - and the individual members, one can see why.  It's like the hemisphere up and abandoned.

Here comes spring D9/10 on this 12z Euro run ...Deep cold retreats N of 55 across Canada and everyone S of the border is above 0C at 850 with continental conveyor from NM to Maine...  Talking low 60s in mid Feb sun - not what winter enthusiasts want to see/hear.   

The last 6 years have seen some eerily warm spell events in February's and March's ... despite years having snow storms during those months - understood ... - the frequency began increasing going back really to 2012... I remember April was 90 on Easter sunday one of those years.  

Anyway, not saying that is the destiny this month, but I have been kind of waiting as a sidecar for early detection in the long range.  The AO is positive.  The NAO is positive.   The PNA is holding out, but lost the surge... If the latter slumps negative I'm not sure I see how we don't soar, given the "local climate era" - not delving into cause.. just monkey see monkey do    

Huge flakes falling currently 

34 rain. looks like precipitation will end soon 

2 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Your actually right about that so far. 
 

I have a pretty decent accretion on trees on the uws and roads and even bricks are still wet. 
 

Thank you. 
 

But I was told I took a “L” or “melting” when you tell people something they don’t want to hear 

3 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

I don't think we can say anyone busted or scored a victory, considering what a strange situation we have going on right now. It's not very often that NYC and parts of Long Island are below freezing with freezing rain while a good part of northern and north-central NJ is above freezing with plain rain. For part of the area it's a serious situation while for another part of the area it's a big nothing.

Even areas around nyc which are below it’s still close to 32. It will accumulate on the trees etc by have very little impact on the main roads. 
 

impactful was a few weeks ago with the frz rain event early in the morning 

1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said:

Its in the mid 20s in central Westchester right now unless you consider that an extreme northern area.   

Of the metro, absolutely 

Not sure what I busted on. I said it would be a slow drain after the morning crash of temps. Outside of extreme northern areas temps are borderline which will not allow a ton of ice build up. 

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Regardless of how much precip is left, roads are going to be very icy area wide later. I would think salt on the roads has been washed away by the rain and temps will just get colder from here. 

Doubtful. Temps wonts be crashing fast enough. Still a slow drain going in the area. I was 37 at 10am and still just 35 now 

35 and rain. Great job by the hrrr 

36 and showers 

21 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Skies brightning a bit in Linden NJ, edge of precip in western Jersey already.

Models always to wet and to cold in a situation like this 

Temps still above frz the majority of the area at 5pm 

Just now, Torch said:

Didn’t turn into a barreling cold front, which would have caused big problems if we had the heavy precip to go with it.

Yup warm ground and temps around 32. Complete non event 

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

Half the forum is already below freezing and has been. The freezing line is pushing South into NE NJ now.

That’s not half the forum and the back edge of precipitation is in eastern Pa 

Going to be a slow drop now through the afternoon. Most areas won’t touch 32 until this evening. Might not be much precipitation left by then 

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Last February was an outlier for us on extended snow cover. This winter so far is like other recent years with quick warm ups and snowmelt. While we had an increase in snowfall since 1981, the snow cover days haven’t kept up.

 

 

Typical Niña winter where the snow doesn’t stick around long 

2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

it was remarkably close and had my area right on the 6-8 line most of the time, we wound up with a narrow swath of 7-8, just across the Kill in SI they had 9.  We almost never overperform here. With snow disappearing so fast these days, I wonder why bother to clean it that well? And I didn't. I do the driveway and walks to make em usable, but don't fuss over it. Most times, it's all gone in a week. 

Yeah, 7.5 here in Metuchen which is down to piles now. It’s been a poor winter for snow cover given how cold it’s been the past few weeks. Last February imo was a great month in our area. Snow cover and numerous events 

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

The whole FV3 upgrade process seems to be very bumpy. The GFS initially had the January 3rd heavy snow event in ACY further north up into our area. Then we saw it too far to the east with the blizzard last weekend. It seems that some forecast outlets held off on the snow forecast until they saw the GFS coming back NW. So this adds an unnecessary layer of confusion to the forecast process. It also raises the question of what will happen where the NAM is discontinued. It’s already been 5 years since the last NAM upgrade and it’s showing with other models like the improving RGEM jumping around less from run to run. It would be even more confusing if a FV3 NAM replacement introduces a whole new set of biases that complicate the forecast process. We are getting to the point where it seems better to rely more on the GEM, RGEM, and Euro. Sometimes the HREF and HRRR dies well. But even they have their issues at times.

I Thought the HRRR did well last storm. Nailed the gradient in nj with jersey shore jackpot 

16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Still a +PNA with a trough over the Great Lakes like the GEPS at the end of the run on the 19th.

@snowman19 this ain’t a torch 

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Very good ensemble (EPS, GEFS, GEPS) agreement now of a mid-month pattern change to mild. The new weeklies have ++AO/++NAO going right into March

Where r you seeing this? The ensembles over night alll look cold till the end…unless you can see past mid month