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Posts posted by Allsnow
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2 minutes ago, bluewave said:
It actually goes beyond this season. Amplified systems usually adjust north over time. So when the storm is originally modeled to go through the Great Lakes, we are in a marginal spot to begin with. Any warmer or northward shift just adds to the milder outcome.That’s why our best snowstorms are often forecast to be just or our south or east in the long range. As we get closer, the heaviest snows begin to creep into our area. You can go back and look at our best snowstorms and see this forecast evolution.
Yep. Bad patterns bring bad results.
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Yeah I think the biggest issue is the fact the waa is going north of the metro. So we are left with a band of snow for those south of CT. Best forcing is well north of the area
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Eps ticked snowier also. Mean close to 3 for nyc
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3 minutes ago, Snow88 said:
Lovely 18z run
I have no clue why people would give you weenies. I mean are people trolling for warmth here or not looking at the pattern ahead.
It’s okay Anthony. I’ll survive
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8 minutes ago, Allsnow said:
Happy Hour Gfs says congrats dca and ACY next weekend during the torch
Then a 95 blizzard on the 30th...obviously this will change but shows the potential
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Happy Hour Gfs says congrats dca and ACY next weekend during the torch
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2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:
Good point, others have observed that as well, no in-betweens, at least it seems that way.....I've said 8 inches was considered a big snow storm when I was a kid.
Yep. Historic cold in December 2017 to record snows in March 2018. On the flip side, record warmth in February 2018/2019 and now record warmth in January 2020.
I would be fool to not say that the earth has warmed. But imo the extremes are most noticeable.
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49 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:
I knew we could count on Don to get us some numbers confirming that warm winters and warm periods in winters have been around for a while.
Yes. I made a comment in the discussion thread that the pond skating in 1907 had to be horrible.
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4 minutes ago, psv88 said:
Yes, in 170 years of record keeping there have been 5 warmer years, and two of them were from before 1950. Three of the 6 (including this year), were in the past 22 years (1998, 2007, 2019). The prior years were 1907, 1932 and 1950.
Essentially, in the 148 years before 1998, there were 3 warmer years, and in the 22 years since, there were 3 years in the top 6.
This is all dumb anyway, as the earth has warmed only 1 degree C since 1850, so you will still have great extremes, cold and warm. -5, becomes -3, which is still pretty ****ing cold. Nothing dumber than "it snowed last week, global warming is a hoax"
100% agree. Perhaps in 50 years our winters will be more like North Carolina. imo are extremes have gotten more extreme as their seems to me no middle of the road anymore.
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4 minutes ago, psv88 said:
What?
My comment was tongue in cheek. But some have posted as if this first half of January is the new normal and winters of yore are over. When you look at the stats most of those warm starts to January were in the early 1900s
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51 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:
January 1-15, 2020 will very likely finish with a mean temperature of 42.8°. That would rank as the 6th warmest start to January in New York City (Central Park).
The five warmer years were:
2007: 46.4°
1932: 44.0°
1950: 43.6°
1907: 43.5°
1998: 43.3°I guess no pond skating back in 1932? Snoski and weatherpruf would have been jumping off their horses.
just reading this thread you would think the warmest first half of This month has happen in the last decade.
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14 minutes ago, bluewave said:
It certainly looks like we are moving into more of an El Niño pattern. The big AAM rise and strong WWB pattern are classic El Niño features. February is typically our best month of winter with an El Niño. The ridge over SE Canada that the models are indicating around the 25th is the January +AAM composite. That ridge usually pulls back in February allowing a colder pattern. But we can always use some help from the -AO and -NAO to make any El Niño February better.
Nice post! Yeah, you’re 100% correct about the +AAM. We just need that to relax a bit to pull the ridge back west. Great stuff @bluewave. I don’t have access to the AAM charts.
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15 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:
Ditto to @binbisso post. The flatter look out west allows for a colder tick. We also do better with the waa precipitation
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1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:
and + NAO - no blocking allowing the cold air to escape and no chance for a redevelopment of the storm to the south
Yes, if we had a -nao it might lock the high in. But that doesn’t change the fact the low is going To track into the Great Lakes. Too much digging off the west coast to force this underneath us.
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1 minute ago, Snow88 said:
Cfs has the MJO going into 8.
I think it does go into 8 and then 1. We should have a favorable period.
Me too Anthony!
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-pna is the reason for the poor storm track
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1 minute ago, White Gorilla said:
Here today, gone tomorrow?
Haha.
Very nino like run. -epo/stj/+pna/Aleutian low/ Pv north of Hudson Bay.
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1 minute ago, psv88 said:
What are we for January, +15? Incredible warmth continues, low was only 41 last night
January 2007 like. Incredible
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2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:
Nice look on the GEFS for the 25th.
-epo returns on the GEFS
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Nice look on the GEFS for the 25th.
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29 minutes ago, snowman19 said:
Yea, it’s pretty clear at this point that 2/15 or 2/05 isn’t on the way, there isn’t even so much as a hint of that and you would be able to see it by now
Well those years are historic for a reason. We can’t see into February until next week, most likely why we don’t have any hints currently
All I’m saying is the pattern going forward isn’t last weekend. We will have chances with cold air around. The nino esque look has me hopeful for a typical cold snowy February.
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January 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread
in New York City Metro
Posted
Those plots are picking up on a kelvin wave in p6. That’s why you’re getting the curl back then back to 8. By the start of February we will be in p8 then the wave looks to die. Will will probably be in cod after the 10th then climo nino takes over for February.
You can now see the members curling back. Those maps are so predictable.