Jump to content

Allsnow

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    25,224

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Allsnow

  1. Allsnow
  2. Allsnow
    Lots of pac influence with the +pna and lower hgts near Ack. We have a niño pattern to start December with a Aleutian low/+pna/-nao. We will be trapping a meh airmass under the block. It looks like after the 5th the ridge goes more poleward.
  3. Allsnow
    The last week of November was never supposed to be cold. Too much pac influence from the lower hgts in Ak. It’s after the 1st when we start seeing a +pna with -nao to suppress the southeast ridge
  4. Allsnow
  5. Allsnow
    Yeah, looks like we start to cool Canada at the end of the run. That’s a pretty abrupt change on the weeklies for the first half of December. Last Friday it pretty much a Niña pattern for the month of December
  6. Allsnow
  7. Allsnow
    I think initially it will be a issue but hope is changes around mid month. Remember Canada’s above avg is below here as we get deeper into December
  8. Allsnow
    Good. Hopefully this means it will weaken for the second half of the winter. Last winter it was real weak at this time and gain strength at the end of December
  9. Allsnow
    Weeklies look great for the first half of December
  10. Allsnow
    Weeklies looks real interesting for the start of December into mid month. +pna/-nao
  11. Allsnow
    12z eps is fire for snow potential to start December
  12. Allsnow
    Furnace the phucker
  13. Allsnow
    Yeah, big PNA rise in the west should produce a sizable storm. Looks like we will have a block to the north for it as well. I would watch that trailing wave after the cutter for some potential winter weather around the 4/5th
  14. Allsnow
    We are a h5 look away from a ideal storm track. It’s all about capitalizing on are chances. We haven’t had a good setup in the last two years. We don’t need a strong niño to get a snowstorm again
  15. Allsnow
    With the -enao the cold shot gets trapped underneath the block and just rots over us.
  16. Allsnow
    I agree. But it should come with a decent cold shot afterwards. The majority of the ensemble guidance keeps the +pna for the first half of December. With that look probably favor a Great Lakes snowstorm around the 30th-1st
  17. Allsnow
    Big time storm signal in the east to start December.
  18. Allsnow
    Im more referring to the winter as a whole. The last two winters whatever pattern set up at the end of December has dominated throughout the winter. This year seems reversed so far, with a warm November and early start to December. Now do we get a reverse in the second half of the month? The PV is very strong currently, this time last year it was weak and on the verge of a ssw. At the end of December 2018 the Pv took off and pretty much closed the shades on any snow potential.
  19. Allsnow
    As you said going to take a few weeks to flush that airmass out of Canada. Even with the pna the flow is still from B.C. And not poleward, so we will need the help of mid/late December climo.
  20. Allsnow
    One way to look at this warm November is it’s the exact opposite of the last two. Whatever pattern has set up in the 2nd half of December has dominated the winter.
  21. Allsnow
    I don’t think December 2010 is walking through the door but I feel optimistic for some snow in December. 1. the Pv isn’t going to sit in Ak 2. The pna willbe positive with the potential for some blocking 3. Once into mid December the above normal temps in Canada are below normal here.
  22. Allsnow
  23. Allsnow
    Definitely more trending towards the GEFS today
  24. Allsnow
    Looks like a cold shot to start December after whatever storm goes by to end November
  25. Allsnow
    That’s all I’m really alluding to. Yes, as you said we had a tiny ridge for those months but the flow was split still kind of zonal at h5.
×
×
  • Create New...