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Allsnow

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Everything posted by Allsnow

  1. Some real potential for the first half of December to produce snow in this pattern. Hopefully it works out.
  2. It will help cool eastern Canada closer to normal if it goes poleward. +3 for Canada is plenty cold for snow for us in this pattern. Good to see that southeast ridge Niña look is not coming for December
  3. Lots of pac influence with the +pna and lower hgts near Ack. We have a niño pattern to start December with a Aleutian low/+pna/-nao. We will be trapping a meh airmass under the block. It looks like after the 5th the ridge goes more poleward.
  4. The last week of November was never supposed to be cold. Too much pac influence from the lower hgts in Ak. It’s after the 1st when we start seeing a +pna with -nao to suppress the southeast ridge
  5. Yeah, looks like we start to cool Canada at the end of the run. That’s a pretty abrupt change on the weeklies for the first half of December. Last Friday it pretty much a Niña pattern for the month of December
  6. I think initially it will be a issue but hope is changes around mid month. Remember Canada’s above avg is below here as we get deeper into December
  7. Good. Hopefully this means it will weaken for the second half of the winter. Last winter it was real weak at this time and gain strength at the end of December
  8. Weeklies looks real interesting for the start of December into mid month. +pna/-nao
  9. Yeah, big PNA rise in the west should produce a sizable storm. Looks like we will have a block to the north for it as well. I would watch that trailing wave after the cutter for some potential winter weather around the 4/5th
  10. We are a h5 look away from a ideal storm track. It’s all about capitalizing on are chances. We haven’t had a good setup in the last two years. We don’t need a strong niño to get a snowstorm again
  11. With the -enao the cold shot gets trapped underneath the block and just rots over us.
  12. I agree. But it should come with a decent cold shot afterwards. The majority of the ensemble guidance keeps the +pna for the first half of December. With that look probably favor a Great Lakes snowstorm around the 30th-1st
  13. Im more referring to the winter as a whole. The last two winters whatever pattern set up at the end of December has dominated throughout the winter. This year seems reversed so far, with a warm November and early start to December. Now do we get a reverse in the second half of the month? The PV is very strong currently, this time last year it was weak and on the verge of a ssw. At the end of December 2018 the Pv took off and pretty much closed the shades on any snow potential.
  14. As you said going to take a few weeks to flush that airmass out of Canada. Even with the pna the flow is still from B.C. And not poleward, so we will need the help of mid/late December climo.
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