You’re trying to hard lol. It’s happening this month. We will have the -epo/+pna/-ao/-nao it’s a deadly combo for snow and cold. The SSW happen yesterday which will seal the deal on January.
That’s a blocking pattern with lower hgts south of it. We won’t get artic cold until the end of January IMO. Once the pac improves it’s going to be off to the races snow wise
This year and the previous winter are completely different. The vortex and mjo forcing ended our winter last year. This year the vortex is getting obliterated and we have blocking. I get what you’re saying but this has Merit IMO.
Don’t disagree with @bluewave. We might be on the doorsteps on a active winter period starting around mid month. Patience will be needed as the block and pac become more favorable