Allsnow

Just now, weatherpruf said:

Indeed. Storm after storm of wind driven rain; blew my storm door off and shattered the glass. Wouldn't see a snow storm of any consequence for years....til Jan 2001, year of the infamous March non-event....and yes I know it delivered north but really.....

December 2000 crushed out area of middlesex county. 

Eps looks great and it continues to move up in time. Still centered around the 5th. 

26 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

 

The recent MJO, FT/MT mediated momentum surge and concomitant high-GWO orbit should at least mediate the semi-persistent AK-GOAK low height anomaly --> wave 1 induction --> convergence/pressure onto the SPV. So, the material weakening of the SPV in mid February is likely more genuine than many of the GEFS plots have depicted this winter heretofore. As the stratospheric status begins to improve mid February onward, I am monitoring the next cycle of tropical wave propagation toward the Central Pacific as we reach the last week of February. At which time, better tropical--->stratospheric receptivity could mediate a more favorable pattern than we've seen to date, from approximately late February into March. Speculative/a priori, but as stated, there are signs that end of winter could feature an "improved pattern." Until late Feb, yes, I think RNA-type structure after a very marginal window in early Feb. As mentioned in my update a week or so ago, the pattern in Feb, while still favoring the interior (RNA structure) will probably offer more chances than Dec-Jan. Still watching late Feb-Mar [somewhat lower confidence speculation for now, but it's something to monitor].

I’m is great agreement with you. I think we see a favorable period at the end of the first week in February. Mid month more of a -pna/se ridge with the cold in the mid west. End of the month as the mjo goes back into colder phases we see a favorable period. 

Just now, bluewave said:

Root for the transient -NAO near the start of February to help us out. We have had surprises in the past around these brief -NAO episodes. While it’s no guarantee, at least it’s better than we have seen all winter so far from the NAO.

 

Agree. That 5-8 timeframe is probably the best look we had all winter. The ridge in central Canada moves into Greenland with a decent pacific.

Starting to see the strat effects on the ops now for the 5-8th. 

I just think the Pv will corporate as we enter February. We could see a more of a La Niña @Isotherm look mid month but the cold air will be around. 

Just now, snowman19 said:

I like HM but he busted very badly so far. He called for a very cold and snowy December and January with massive -EPO and +PNA blocking, he also called for a continuation of cold/snow through February. It hasn’t been a good winter for him at all

Anyone that has gone cold and snowy for this winter has had it rough. My point of posting his tweet is that I agree with him. Does it mean 40 inch February for Knyc? No! All I’m saying is I don’t think February will be a all out disaster. (like January) IMO February should offer some chances. It was obvious last week (I posted such) that January was toast. 

@bluewave great post a few days ago about a stronger wave in p1 to disrupt the Pv/vortex.

Mjo won’t rule the roost 

I still think our chances will go up for snow around the 5th. The airmass will greatly improve. Signs of the trough pulling back west between the 10-15 of February. But that’s so far out in time it will probably changed. I continue to like the disruptions to the Pv we are seeing for February. 

Euro was leading the way on this with a better Pv orientation for the first week of February. The GEFS just caved in that direction. I’m definitely feeling more confident now for the cold shot around the 5th 

Interior should be excited with this setup 

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

If there isn’t a good PNA ridge and/or some blocking, this will likely end up over Detroit. I’m more interested in those over any particular storm. 

48 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The EPS was definitely huggy

We look to have a good pna next week. The airmass and position of ridge will be key. A costal hugger or a apps runner isn’t a cutter. I doubt we see a cutter in this pattern. 

Getting out there in the uber long range but I like the 5th-8th timeframe. Better airmass with some blocking. 

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The euro ensembles definitely still look a lot better going into early February. No negative changes today. In fact, there's early signs of a -NAO in the 11-15...first time we've seen that in a while. 

But the ball really gets rolling first with the PNA ridging out west around d7-8. EPO isn't overly robust but it's no longer overly hostile by D10-11. 

 

Yeah, starts kicking that vortex out around the 3rd as the Hudson ridge moves closer to Greenland. 

1 minute ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Why are you looking at models past 5 days they suck and are most likely wrong. I expect nothing unless we get lucky here it’s a coin toss

Because it’s a weather forum and find weather interesting.

I hope this is okay with you.......

Not a bad h5 set up but the airmass is kind of meh 

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Gefs in agreement with eps/geps at 12z with flushing out the vortex first week of February. Let’s see if we can hold this as we move closer. 

Eps looks even better this run by kicking the vortex out by the 3rd. We even get some blocking at the end in the NAO region. 
 

All this is great but we need to view it through skeptical eyes. Just trying to give you guys a update daily. 

Gefs in agreement with eps/geps at 12z with flushing out the vortex first week of February. Let’s see if we can hold this as we move closer. 

6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

A huge pick-up in activity due to the split flow means we're probably not gonna follow the warm/dry winters. 

True blocking remains elusive but the Hudson ridge could trigger a -NAO response.

I wouldn't entirely dismiss the threats for next week. We do get a +PNA and though the airmass isn't very cold, it can still work out at peak cold climo. Of course we also want coastal tracks, not inland like this weekend. 

It's probable the MJO emerges at phase 1/2 after Feb 5-10 so pattern should gradually continue to improve after 1st week of Feb. The Alaskan vortex will likely weaken and we may see ridging extend from the Hudson to the typical NAO regions. 

This all should give us a decent Feb 15 to Mar 15 period. 

I agree with all of this. Very nice post. 

16 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

what does everybody think the chances are of this verifying ? My prediction is slim to none and Slim just left town...……….

EPS Idv have some hits around the 30th to 1st. The better look is around the 5th-6th when we have a colder airmass. 
 

I would say we have a chance but better shot inland.

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Latest Roundy plots have the mjo getting stronger in p1 then moving into p2. This might be the jump start we need to kick the vortex out? @bluewave

29 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It looks like the models are going for forcing in the MJO 6 and 1- 2 regions the next few weeks. So we’ll have to see what that combination looks like in the actual pattern. Plus the +AAM spike gets added to the mix. So a continuation of La Niña and El Niño influences which shows up in the split flow.

 

Do you think with loosing the big time wpac forcing we will see a relaxation in the +AAM

Latest Roundy plots have the mjo getting stronger in p1 then moving into p2. This might be the jump start we need to kick the vortex out? @bluewave

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Same with MJO IOD, lots of speculation.  No one gives credit to a combination of so many variables its beyond our understanding right now. People try but just can't predict when a 2015 will occur 

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

MJO is a lot more influential IMHO...or at least the convection in that area regardless of the "official" MJO phase. It's just kind of hard to predict so we can't really say in advance of when a standing wave there is going to promote a 2015 pattern for 3 weeks. 

I think it’s definitely has a hand in our weather Pattern. It matters more imo from NYC south then say you guys. You can snow in p6 more easily then I can. That’s why I avg 20 and you guys avg 60.