Allsnow

It’s been warm! What a awful month for winter weather

Lots of spread in low placement, yes. But that doesn’t change the laundry list of problems that argue against snow for the metro area.

These are the 2m anomaly along with the idv that show either a interior snow hit or late phase. If you go off the low location more then a few show a perfect track for the coast. So why doesn’t it show more hits? Imo it’s the airmass with a high sliding off the coast/lakes low/ and late phases with northern stream. We have a long list of things that point against snow for the coast. And even with some of the models that show hits it’s not 100% snow or we are depending on dynamics to overcome temps.

Yeah, the snow mean jumps up on the eps between the 5th-9th. Do you think we get a cutter around the 2nd-3rd as the cold moves east? Looks like the initial cold push dumps west first.

I was referring to a conversation in the January thread about how this past week temps would not support snow. More specifically with the ULL yesterday.

Furthermore, you have a high pressure sliding east that is adding insult to injury to a already awful airmass. Yes, lots to learn from your posts last weekend on how this split flow look will be cold enough for the northeast. It’s only 40 degrees in Toronto currently. How are temps in North Carolina?

@NEG NAO @NYCweatherNOW Incorrect. Nyc gets close to .45 and has temps in the upper 30’s. The airmass is putrid

That’s 850’s. The surface temps very iffy. 983 bombing low on a cold and snowy bias model that only gets about a inch in nyc! That should tell you a lot about the airmass.

I don’t think this will have a sharp ridge out west to turn the corner for a inland runner. But the airmass is bleh for the coast. The eps idv are either snowy hits for the interior or sne.

Another beautiful eps run for the first week of February.

Lots of uncertainty with low location on the eps. Only consistent is snow mean is less then 1 inch for the coast. The majority of the members are inland hits.

Continue improvements with more of a sustained cold pattern on the eps/gefs/geps for the first week of February. I’m sure many will melt when the cutter comes that brings the cold out of the west. The look between the 5th and 8th is really nice.

It also takes longer for the euro to eject the sw energy

Wave spacing and the vortex killing the ridge out west on the euro. This doesn’t allow the northern stream to dive in. So the southern stream has to do it all on its own in a meh airmass. The ridge is just not as sharp as we need on the euro.

Imo the forcing in the western pac is a kelvin wave that will fade quickly. You can see it on the roundy plots. The gefs have the correct idea on mjo progression. The euro and its ensembles have been correcting towards the Gfs.

This was the mjo for February 2015. Just hung out in cod until March it went crazy in cold phases.

Persistent forecasting isn’t a good way to forecast.

Eventually we will time one of these wet systems with cold air.

I see a -epo with a -pna and southeast ridge in the long long range. Does it makes sense mjo wise? Yes. But with the strat effects I think we will be okay. It would be a gradient pattern with swfe. The pv being distributed will lead to more of a -epo then what is being forecasted currently. February will feature lots of opportunities for snow. Obviously, easy to say when we have had so little. For next weekend threat, I like the interior. With the high moving off shore it doesn’t help a already meh airmass. I continue to like the 5th-8th time frame for our biggest threat.

I’m confident now of are coldest arctic blast of the season to start February. The strat looking real good on the gefs.

Absolutely. I remember being in awe of the snow depth after the December storm. It had been since 95-96 since I had witness snow like that.

Agree. The December storm was amazing.

December 2000 crushed out area of middlesex county.

Eps looks great and it continues to move up in time. Still centered around the 5th.

I’m is great agreement with you. I think we see a favorable period at the end of the first week in February. Mid month more of a -pna/se ridge with the cold in the mid west. End of the month as the mjo goes back into colder phases we see a favorable period.