Allsnow

I still like the 5-9th period for a threat of snow. Unfortunately, the strat hit has weakened and we are building lower hgts back into the ak. So it’s more of a modified airmass that’s coldest to our west. The transient blocking disappeared as well. It’s still not a horrible look and the airmass is a bit better then what we have currently. 

1 minute ago, Mersky said:

Lol you don’t know what the MJO is going to do. Neither does he. 

Obviously convection can be hard to forecast well in advance. But @tombo82685 and I have been pretty accurate with it this winter. 
 

And let’s be honest, your track record of going against my thoughts haven’t worked out well for you. 

10 minutes ago, Mersky said:

The euro does bring it out like you say but weak. I just don’t think the MJO is going to be a big factor later in winter. I am not saying it’s going be cold the rest of the winter but a weak MJO signal in warm phases can be overcome, especially late winter 

The mjo won’t be weak.  Look for it to gain amplitude in those phases with all that warm water stacked up.

4 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

I will never post on this site again if that rmm verifies, this should come out into 3-4-5-6. Why would convection just rot when it has all the warm water around Australia 

Yep. And to pick the CFS rmm plot nonetheless. The same plot that had this going into high amplitude p8 a few days ago. You and I both know this is going 3-4-5-6. The weenies will always rip and read those rmm plots. The warm waters by Australia (example wild fires and heat) keep the convection there. 
 

Roundy plots are clearly into 3-4-5-6. And with the warm waters it will gain strength in 5-6. 

euro and gfs agree with this 

Just now, Brian5671 said:

AO is forecast to go to +4 or even +5.   Just not looking likely at all IMO

Yeah, the only mechanism I see to get cold down here is the -epo. But if the ridge is poorly positioned it will just dump the cold into the west with the -pna.

Just now, snowman19 said:

It looks like a major RNA pattern coming up by mid-February. If that’s the case, the can is kicked until the end of the month or early March. At that point you can hear the clock ticking. After 3/15 it’s pretty much game over minus some anomalous freak snow event south of New England 

Yep. Looks like a La Niña February with the mjo in 4-5-6 by mid month. Unless we see some type of attack on the Pv, I don’t see a cold March either imo. 
 

Just nothing argues sustained cold for February currently. Yes, we could get some type of swfe event but it’s all going to depend on how strong the southeast ridge is.

I still like the 5th-9th for something. Unfortunately, I would be lying if I told you it looked as good as it did a few days ago. 

1 hour ago, PB-99 said:

 

Total can kick with the cold now as it starts after the 13th lol. If the -epo ridge sets up to far west it’s just going to dump the cold into the west. As you posted, great pattern for Chicago. We need to see where the -epo sets up or even materialize. That will write the story for February. I’m beginning to think it’s just not our year unfortunately. I will just hope for a early spring if that’s the case 

8 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks you have been spot on accurate with winter along with Bluewave and Isotherm. Even though there are some differences to last year, the results are largely the same. March always holds promise due to shortening wavelengths so I have not given up on something happening. I know some have predicted a favorable NAO helping to offset the Pacific, however if the ensembles are correct it's not happening soon.

Thanks. But I think I’m going to bust on the cold outbreak for the 6th. The strat hit has weakened so the air is more modified. In March p2-5 are cold and it looks like the mjo wants to hang there because of the warm waters near Australia. We would still need a -epo for a cold March which I hope shows up sooner then later. 
 

I wouldn’t look for a -nao anytime soon with the current PV orientation. Perhaps that changes closer to March if we can blow this Pv up. That being said, we are not done with snow. Something will work out sooner then late r. Especially, for areas further north then me. 

5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Maybe you can talk me off the ledge, however for southern New England we are starring at a strongly positive AO, trending positive NAO, trending negative PNA and an MJO that is stuck in the warm phases.

Northern New England can do fine with this type of gradient, however with the resulting SE ridge showing up on the GEFS and GEPS I can definitely see where SNE is on the wrong side of the gradient.

What mechanism can overcome this? The only thing I can think of is a deeply negative well positioned EPO ridge. Possible? Yes but likely? I am not sure as I am not a met. I hope so.

We keep kicking the can on the -epo also. The February 5-9th period was supposed to be below normal but now it’s more after the 9/10th. With the mjo in unfavorable phases the -pna could very easily be worst as we get closer with a stronger southeast ridge. Granted sne can obviously do better in a gradient then my location. I guess I’m looking for some positivity also lol.

7 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Unfortunately it’s not a very cold look either despite the 500mb look.  Just slightly below normal with above normal in Canada and the northern tier.  Positive EPO has voided Canada of arctic air

Still a better airmass then what we have been dealing with. The epo looks to go negative closer to the 9/10th as we get more of a gradient look. But yes it’s not super cold as it modifies a bit dumping out west first. 
 

the vortex has really killed the cold in Canada. 

18 minutes ago, Mersky said:

Meh 

That not a cold dry look with a mean trough over Chicago and ridge off west coast. Even Some hints of blocking 

3 minutes ago, Mersky said:

I guess you missed my post yesterday were i said everything had to be perfect for this to be a snowstorm. That said you wrote it off days ago.  And your timeframe you have been hyping looks cold and dry. Congrats

“Worry about temps later” 

7 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Euro is an outlier right now but temps continue to be an issue like you said. It's a shame because we are at the end of January and temps shouldn't be an issue with a Miller A storm. Hopefully the models dig the northern stream in and everyone cashes in.

I tried to tell you and @Mersky but once again it was like talking to a brick wall. The airmass greatly improves after the 5th. We will have chances in that timeframe. 

Eps snow mean ticked down. The idv have hits but lots of warm solutions. The airmass continues to be a huge issue. 

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Did the weeklies come out?

Yes. They look good for the first two weeks of February. Then more of a gradient look with -epo. For whatever they are worth. 

13 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

I highly doubt it honestly not one model shows that...

Not one model shows a snowy outcome for nyc but you’re still making a case for it.....

Just now, NYCweatherNOW said:

Gfs is a big hit!

No it’s not........

unless light rain is a big hit 

20 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Oh without a doubt. Even the difference between my old place on the immediate south shore and where I live now is comical at times. On Tue, there was no snow left at all from the weekend minor event SWFE in Long Beach but a good amount left where I live now, almost full coverage some areas. It’s a 45 minute drive between both. 

Yep, it’s climo. And more often then not climo will win out.

8 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Are you saying it’s game over for the city 100%?

I think the set up and airmass favor areas of the interior/sne. Could nyc thread the needle and get it to work? It’s possible but I would bet against it. I think it’s obvious the set up is bad when even the models that show hits are not snow for Nyc.

Just now, jm1220 said:

Boston has 14.6” I believe and NYC 4.8”. But plenty of others around have more-I’m up to 9.5” for the season, EWR has 6.9”, etc. It’s been lousy for everyone and just about everyone’s below average except around Albany which got crushed by the early Dec storm. 

I believe interior sne is around avg or a bit above. The point is in marginal set ups they will often have more wiggle room. Take the December storm for example. That was a marginal airmass with white rain in the city. Sne and Albany got crushed. 
 

The point of the post wasn’t to compare who is having a worst winter. It was to show how in marginal set ups they often have more room for error. 

8 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Somewhat of an exaggeration, depending on what you define as way more. Boston averages 17 inches more per season than NYC but 17 inches less than Albany at the same latitude. No one ever seems to remember when their easterly locations work against them too.

if you're just referring to the city and the coastal plain of NJ what you say is true, but most areas N&W of NYC and even a few spots on the North shore of LI average the same or more snow per season than many parts of SNE, especially coastal CT, RI and MA.

Yes, I was referring to the costal plain.  We have spots to the north and west of the metro that probably Avg more then Boston. But those same locations fail in comparison to a place like  Orh. 
 

The point of the post is their longitude and climo is more conducive for snow in a marginal set up. I believe currently Boston has 17 inches to nyc 2.8? 

Just now, Snow88 said:

Exactly 

This thread is a disaster. Time to read posts in the SNE thread where they think the threat isnt over yet.

The threat isn’t over for them because of there latitude and climo. They can get away with way more imperfections in a set up then we can. This is why they avg way more snow then us. 

The 12z euro is OTS as the pna ridge gets beaten down by the wave train/vortex.