Allsnow

Now the 18z GEFS has a nice -epo ridge position as it’s more into eastern Alaska. This helps knock down the southeast ridge

Yes, and the higher hgts in the pac was more of a dateline ridge. We didn’t have a way to get the cold down into the conus during early January. With the -epo we will.

for after the 9th, the ens are building a -epo with a -pna/southeast ridge. On today’s eps the -epo is to far west so we would be on the other side of the gradient. This doesn’t mean no snow! We could definitely eek out a swfe/overrunning event if one of the s/w stays progressive. It’s just not a good pattern for sustained cold in the east. Now if the ensembles are off (which they could very well be) on the epo ridge position then we could be in a better spot.

I still like the 5-9th period for a threat of snow. Unfortunately, the strat hit has weakened and we are building lower hgts back into the ak. So it’s more of a modified airmass that’s coldest to our west. The transient blocking disappeared as well. It’s still not a horrible look and the airmass is a bit better then what we have currently.

Obviously convection can be hard to forecast well in advance. But @tombo82685 and I have been pretty accurate with it this winter. And let’s be honest, your track record of going against my thoughts haven’t worked out well for you.

The mjo won’t be weak. Look for it to gain amplitude in those phases with all that warm water stacked up.

Yep. And to pick the CFS rmm plot nonetheless. The same plot that had this going into high amplitude p8 a few days ago. You and I both know this is going 3-4-5-6. The weenies will always rip and read those rmm plots. The warm waters by Australia (example wild fires and heat) keep the convection there. Roundy plots are clearly into 3-4-5-6. And with the warm waters it will gain strength in 5-6. euro and gfs agree with this

Yeah, the only mechanism I see to get cold down here is the -epo. But if the ridge is poorly positioned it will just dump the cold into the west with the -pna.

Yep. Looks like a La Niña February with the mjo in 4-5-6 by mid month. Unless we see some type of attack on the Pv, I don’t see a cold March either imo. Just nothing argues sustained cold for February currently. Yes, we could get some type of swfe event but it’s all going to depend on how strong the southeast ridge is. I still like the 5th-9th for something. Unfortunately, I would be lying if I told you it looked as good as it did a few days ago.

Total can kick with the cold now as it starts after the 13th lol. If the -epo ridge sets up to far west it’s just going to dump the cold into the west. As you posted, great pattern for Chicago. We need to see where the -epo sets up or even materialize. That will write the story for February. I’m beginning to think it’s just not our year unfortunately. I will just hope for a early spring if that’s the case

Thanks. But I think I’m going to bust on the cold outbreak for the 6th. The strat hit has weakened so the air is more modified. In March p2-5 are cold and it looks like the mjo wants to hang there because of the warm waters near Australia. We would still need a -epo for a cold March which I hope shows up sooner then later. I wouldn’t look for a -nao anytime soon with the current PV orientation. Perhaps that changes closer to March if we can blow this Pv up. That being said, we are not done with snow. Something will work out sooner then late r. Especially, for areas further north then me.

We keep kicking the can on the -epo also. The February 5-9th period was supposed to be below normal but now it’s more after the 9/10th. With the mjo in unfavorable phases the -pna could very easily be worst as we get closer with a stronger southeast ridge. Granted sne can obviously do better in a gradient then my location. I guess I’m looking for some positivity also lol.

Still a better airmass then what we have been dealing with. The epo looks to go negative closer to the 9/10th as we get more of a gradient look. But yes it’s not super cold as it modifies a bit dumping out west first. the vortex has really killed the cold in Canada.

That not a cold dry look with a mean trough over Chicago and ridge off west coast. Even Some hints of blocking

“Worry about temps later”

I tried to tell you and @Mersky but once again it was like talking to a brick wall. The airmass greatly improves after the 5th. We will have chances in that timeframe.

Eps snow mean ticked down. The idv have hits but lots of warm solutions. The airmass continues to be a huge issue.

Yes. They look good for the first two weeks of February. Then more of a gradient look with -epo. For whatever they are worth.

Not one model shows a snowy outcome for nyc but you’re still making a case for it.....

No it’s not........ unless light rain is a big hit

Yep, it’s climo. And more often then not climo will win out.

I think the set up and airmass favor areas of the interior/sne. Could nyc thread the needle and get it to work? It’s possible but I would bet against it. I think it’s obvious the set up is bad when even the models that show hits are not snow for Nyc.

I believe interior sne is around avg or a bit above. The point is in marginal set ups they will often have more wiggle room. Take the December storm for example. That was a marginal airmass with white rain in the city. Sne and Albany got crushed. The point of the post wasn’t to compare who is having a worst winter. It was to show how in marginal set ups they often have more room for error.