Allsnow

3 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

 

IMO and I could be wrong so someone with more knowledge can correct me but IF the GFS and to some extent the Euro wind up being right then there has to be some kind of change going on with the overall patten that would make things more conducive for winter weather here especially along the coast. It will be either that or pure luck.

It will come down to the pac and epo location. The models are currently backing away from the -pna. So now  temperatures are closer to normal with the -epo. The boundary will be close so good luck getting a idea on what’s going to happen this far out. 

33 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

You probably said the same thing last winter, yet here we are. 

I did lol

February snowfall Knyc 1.2 

On the bright side next winter can’t be any worse lol. 

1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

Yes it is.Need the front to come in quicker with the low rides it.

Yep. H5 set up has completely changed from what it was a few days ago. The trough is further west and the transient blocking is gone. Perhaps we can get something along the boundary closer to the middle of the month. 

Just now, Snow88 said:

Its hilarious how the MJO keeps avoiding the cold phases. It's now modeled to go into the COD and then out into 4.

My storm is on life support. Sorry bud. 

Our best shot for snow this month is if we can get the boundary south of us for a day. Just thinking back to typical Niña/nada February’s it worked in 2008/2012. Just a typical overrunning event that dumps 2-4/3-5 and by the next day it’s back to 40’s rain.

23 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This was a great tweet. I have been  saying this for a while about old analogs not matching the new climate. The expansion of the WPAC warm pool has been favoring these warmer MJO phases for us. 

 

I agree 100%. Enso states, analogs, snow cover, and NPAC warm pools are becoming less informative on the coming winter. It’s really all about the Pv and mjo. Stuff that is very hard to predict from months in advance.

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

I’d say get it over with and be done with “winter” if we won’t go into any sustained cold pattern with snow. I’m fine with wall to wall warm then. 

Yeah. With the Mjo going into p4-5-6 I think the response could be pretty warm in mid February. 

Oh well. 

Just now, Brian5671 said:

wow-the weeklies are usually like JB, holding out to the bitter end.  If they say it's over it's over.

They really have not bought into any type of cold/snowy pattern. They did a good job in sniffing out the dateline ridge in January and rna pattern for February. 

Weeklies basically saying it’s over! We are above normal until mid March. I would welcome a early spring. Yes, we can still snow but any deep winter pattern is definitely trashed. 

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

to spring?

We can only hope.....

Eps snow mean is putrid! Good times lol 

Okay okay.....2/15 is when the pattern flips

13 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The forecasts that had the SPV weakening in February have all backed down and are again showing a strong vortex and cold stratosphere again. It’s nearing the time to pull the plug

Yeah, any type of distribution now would only effect late March into April. Once the Pv coupled with the atmosphere is was over. We haven’t had any type of hits in the strat to disrupt it. 
 

In 13/14 we had a strong Pv but it was in a better position with lots of strat activity. Going forward the most important factors for winter IMO are the PV and MJO. 

20 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Amongst many factors, the warm water on the NW shore of Australia killed this year.    Makes the MJO want to stay in the warm phases.    Couple that with the super positive AO, +EPO and -NAO and we're toast.

The PV gaining strength and being poorly positioned was the death sentence at the end of December. The Vortex made a late home in Ak for a big chunk of this winter 

9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Unfortunately those are all the signs of a Ratter.  Keep kicking it out...until it's over and never materializes.   This has that feeling.   Like Ginxy said...maybe we get a nice Mid Feb-Mid March?  Sure Hope so.  But I'm skeptical at the moment. 

Just need to wait and see how things look at the end of next week. As @CoastalWx said yesterday in the medium range, ensembles will smooth things out. So you won’t see how bad the flaws will be. (Ex: Se ridge -epo position) 

The GEFS wants to position the pv better after the 15th . Which might allow for better cold shots in the east. Then hopefully some help from the mjo as it gets into p6/7. For a -nao chance we need the TPV out of Greenland.

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the Euro has been doing it too...just not as bad as the GEFS.

 

 

Yep. It seems like the euro is the first to correct back to +epo in the medium range.

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Part of that bias has come from the EPO region. Models have been too happy to torch AK only to back off, hence the bias. 

Yep. Originally the 5th-8th was supposed to be cold. Now it’s just another round of a meh airmass that we hope is cold enough. Now we kick the can to after the 9th with the epo. For whatever reason we continue to kick the can in that area. 

7 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

for after the 9th, the ens are building a -epo with a -pna/southeast ridge. On today’s eps the -epo is to far west so we would be on the other side of the gradient. This doesn’t mean no snow! We could definitely eek out a swfe/overrunning event if one of the s/w stays progressive. It’s just not a good pattern for sustained cold in the east. Now if the ensembles are off (which they could very well be) on the epo ridge position then we could be in a better spot. 

Now the 18z GEFS has a nice -epo ridge position as it’s more into eastern Alaska. This helps knock down the southeast ridge 

26 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Doesn’t look comparable to what the EPS is showing. That was a +EPO pattern that kept all the cold mostly bottled up in Yukon/NW territories and BC. Central and eastern Canada torched

 

22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah the Tropospheric PV is in Hudson Bay as modeled, so that is nothing like early January. 

Yes, and the higher hgts in the pac was more of a dateline ridge. We didn’t have a way to get the cold down into the conus during early January. With the -epo we will.

for after the 9th, the ens are building a -epo with a -pna/southeast ridge. On today’s eps the -epo is to far west so we would be on the other side of the gradient. This doesn’t mean no snow! We could definitely eek out a swfe/overrunning event if one of the s/w stays progressive. It’s just not a good pattern for sustained cold in the east. Now if the ensembles are off (which they could very well be) on the epo ridge position then we could be in a better spot.