Where do u see a trough in the east for 2-3 weeks?
with all due respect, you post these day 11-15 day ensemble means every winter that fail to tell the entire story. I want snow just as bad as anyone but this winter won’t be it for nyc
The mjo convection is in conflict as it’s in diff phases. You can see in the ext products that any trough in the east will be transient. Our only way out was this Decembers with the PNA but the pac never slowed down.
It’s the coldest time of the year so it would need to be an impressive sustainable cold outbreak. The other issue will be how torched Canada will be the next two weeks
Which might mean more of the same as Dec with cold/dry after cutters into the lakes. Never like seeing a trough in the sw as it has trended stronger over time every winter
Makes sense with the mjo convection in different phases to start January. Going to need a clean pass in phase 8 to get anything on the east coast