Allsnow

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Hopefully, this just turns out to be a 2 year thing. That’s how it has worked out since 2010. But if we don’t see a change as soon as next winter, then it could be an extended stretch. 
 

09-10....10-11....record -AO/-NAO....Colder and snowy

11-12..................Raging +EPO..........Warm low snowfall 

12-13..................Great February especially eastern sections...warmer winter

13-14....14-15.....record -EPO...built further east into +PNA 2nd winter...cold and snowy

15-16..................Super El Niño...warm and snowy

16-17.....17-18....Warm and snowy La Niña 

18-19....19-20.....Warm and less snowfall...ridge stuck north of Hawaii with persistent cutter and hugger storm tracks

Nice post! We can only hope. 

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Gefs possibly goes into 7. We need it to move along to have a good March. 

I don’t currently think we get much help from the mjo this month or the next. The warm waters are just helping convection fire in the wrong phases. 
 

Weeklies keep this Niña type pattern going well into March. There are weeks where the boundary slips south but definitely no deep winter pattern in sight.

Just now, WestBabylonWeather said:

what other winters in the past have we seen this? just curious this is new to me

more curious whats causing it

I would need to go back and look. The Pv being so strong and mjo in warm phases isn’t helping.

97-98 had a similar pac jet 

Enjoy today and tomorrow....probably won’t be this nice again for a while. Ugh 

32 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

what's causing it though? when was the last time it happened?

It happened all last winter. The pacific jet is just very fast around the globe. We need to slow it down but unfortunately it hasn’t happen. We have done better in March because the wave length shorten. Even when we get a some pna help out west it’s more of a ridge then what we really need. 

33 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

cutters with brief cold shots behind them 

Only chance at snow would be front end slop or a weak wave between cutters. Unfortunately, beautiful days like today and tomorrow are probably over for a while. Looks more 40’s and rain going forward 

1 minute ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

I keep hearing the pacific jet keeps crashing the +PNA

what does this mean exactly? how long has I been this way? what type of pattern change would need to happen for it to stop?

It keeps killing the pna ridge from amplifying into western Canada. So it’s harder for the storms to turn up the coast. But overall the pacific has been a hot mess for two years now. 

10 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

The cutter was flatter on the 12Z Euro than 0Z and yet the second storm was way worse so I'm not sure how much one impacts the other

The energy for the weekend was weaker. We need the cutter to set the stage with a better airmass. 

4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The Sunday event I think is more likely to be too progressive and miss south than anything.  

Definitely a possibility if it remains weak and Thursday’s cutter is strong. 

Eps mean still hinting at something for Saturday night. Snow mean around 1-2 for the area.

The gfs has the light snowfall for Saturday night on today’s 12z run. It’s not as amped as the euro(which the euro is probably wrong on) but it has potential. As long as we get a strong cutter Thursday we should have a good airmass for it.

18z euro very Icey for northern NJ Thursday morning. Nice strip of snow for lower Hudson valley also 

1 minute ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

It’s snowing hard by mountain creek. Nice 2-4 looks like a sure bet up there.

Areas in the Poconos are doing well also. The system is definitely more robust then forecasted.

Why wouldn’t I be in good banding for a marginal airmass system during early February lol 

Higher elevation areas of northern Nj doing well with this event. Euro was showing this potential. Definitely a surprise for some. 

Light snow 35 

Not to be taking literally but insane gradient in snowfall the next two weeks 

4 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Can confirm all rain here.

Would think you are seeing some wet flakes now with those returns on radar by you 

Snowing which is odd because it’s going to be 97 degrees tomorrow 

Just now, HeadInTheClouds said:

Yes, thats why I was asking for you to clarify. Latitude will play an important part in who sees what. 

Absolutely. It’s a gradient pattern. I think last nights eps mean was 3-4 for me and 8-10 for sne. This is for the entire run.

1 minute ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

What area exactly? 50 miles north of city should see some snow from second wave. 

Best area for snow will be northern Pa into the lower Hudson valley/sne before a change over. I don’t see much snow falling for areas around the city and northern nj.

Just now, MJO812 said:

Euro shows next weekends threat under us but the Euro just trended much further east with the midweek storm which gives interior NY  plenty of snow.

Yeah, but now the system for next weekend is in a perfect spot with a weaker cutter. In this pattern you don’t want it perfect 160 hours out. Last nights euro with a stronger cutter the following system went south of us.

We probably want this system as jacked up as possible so the following wave next Saturday goes under us. At best this is some sleet/ice to rain for the area. Don’t buy into the ggem/Ukmet silliness. 

2 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

Yeah I think we just gotta tough this one out, enjoy it for what it is. Even if we get a few more low snow winters, they aren't likely to be this warm, IMHO. We still had the few 2-4 events in the 80's, with the occasional blockbuster. This is going down as a serious clunker at this rate, but maybe March will pull us out again. 

I tend to agree. I think this is just one of those winters where it won’t snow. My hopes aren’t high for March either. 
 

The gfs is going to continue to give false hope with it’s medium range cold and snow bias. 

21 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You wonder if the MJO slowing in the warm phases like this means different March expectations from recent years? The MJO last several years made it to the cold phases by late February. Then we got the lagged cold and snow for March.

I think so.....Eric fisher had a interesting tweet about years with a AO this positive the warmth continued into March. I don’t see much help from the mjo after the 15th. The roundy plots keep convection in the warm phases and it collapses there. We would need other help if we want a cold March. I just don’t see help from the Pv or any other area to think that currently. This is a mild/snowless winter from end to end