Allsnow

Roundy plots have the wave collapsing on the boarder of p6/7. Then by March 1st another wave forms in p2. Phase 2/3 are cold in March but if the Pv is still uber strong  along with AO idk how the cold will get here.

Tornado warning down by Kphl.

I don’t think that area has been under a winter storm warning this winter yet lol 

Eps looked horrible over night. -pna and southeast ridge then by the end of the month it’s a zonal flow with lower hgts in Canada.

High wind warnings issued for the costal counties of NJ.

Will these winds mix down to the surface? 

37 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

It looks -pna/+nao through week 4. Week 5 and 6 are a bit more neutral but certainly not cold. 

2m temps didn’t look bad to me on the weeklies. Yes, not bone chilling but after the 20th temps in sne are normal. We would fight the southeast ridge at times but it looks to get knocked down. Here are a few h5 maps and one that shows the weak -nao in March. Imo better then 6 weeks of the same pattern that was being depicted on Monday. Obviously, this is to be taken with a grain of salt 

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

decent model trends today with next weekend looking colder and now the weeklies-still fantasy until we're within 5 days IMO

Yep. It does have that cold shot next weekend with the boundary moving south of us.

Weeklies flip to a cold March this run. Looks like some -nao also lol.

Need the energy to be a strong a possible if you want a snow event Saturday night. The energy diving into the northwest is killing the ridge. 

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Saturday night and Sunday look less impressive with each model run as well

Still 4 days away but it doesn’t look that impressive currently outside a chance of 1-3. Areas between bwi to phl could do well. As @PB-99 said, going to be a screw zone when the low transfers. Looks to be our area currently 

Definitely a torch alert for next week with the mjo in 5/6. I would expect some serious warmth from the mid Atlantic into southern New England 

17 hours ago, NittanyWx said:

Most meteorologists I know did not disregard the MJO.  If anything, the pattern did not mimic the expected outcome when it transitioned to the 'colder phases' this year.  What does that tell you?  If you want to say that maybe the MJO has had more of an IO/warmer phase bias and that bathwater from a slow monsoon advancement north of Australia torpedoed cold chances earlier in winter, that's fine by me. 

 

But in a year with very little blocking and a strong ass MJO that was coherent thru the colder phases, we still never got durable cold.  When that happens odds are other things going on overwhelmed the typical MJO wave response.  And that again brings us back to the PV...

Great post. The only issue I have is that we really haven’t had a coherent wave in the cold phases since November. From the start of  December it has been all warm phases and movement into 7/8 has been to weak. The pv position and strength has played huge role in this disaster. Just a lot went wrong between the pv and mjo. 
 

We did have a coherent wave into the cold phases back in Nov 2019. That was a big reason why that month was so cold. 

1 hour ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Do you know what Euro is depicting as far as snow late Wednesday-Thursday morning? My forecast is for snow/sleet/ZR during that time period. I'm thinking 1 maybe 2 max for snow/sleet. 

Little to no snow and some light ice. It’s mainly a rain event in your area on the euro. Need to be in Albany on north 

Eps mean for Saturday is 2-4 inches for the area. But I’ll believe that when I see it 

1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

This clown map is total BS every run has totals varying widely

It’s a 200 hour snowfall map that includes sleet from a op model! Are you really this shocked  by it? 

@uncle W how warm was the winter of 92-93? I remember January and most of February very warm.

Lots of energy diving into the west coast next week. I don’t see how we don’t get into a warm sector of a big cutter.

3 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

I agree with all of the above, but let me also add a " jump zone " to it. 

 

Good times 

4 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

The wave is garbage on the Euro 

 

The epitome of this winter, flooding rains on Friday to a chance of a half inch of snow Saturday night lol. Spring can’t come soon enough 

51 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It seems the last 1-2 years that when the Euro has an extremely weak MJO and the GFS wants to go insane the Euro is right....on the other end when both agree on a decent amplitude wave the GFS tends to be more correct while the Euro kills it too fast.

Roundy plots do not support the gfs thinking. 

13 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Ha I did the same thing-I wanted to make big piles that would last.  Of course it was the 80's, so snow was rare and it was somewhat of a novelty to shovel.

The winter of 95-96 I shoveled my neighbor’s driveway for 20 bucks a storm. During the 96 blizzard I waved the white flag and they got a backhoe to plow it. That family is probably still laughing to this day about the money and back aches they saved that winter.

1 minute ago, psv88 said:

Exactly, nobody on LI had snowblowers in the 80s and 90s. Only after the 2000s did people really invest. I still dont have one, and my neighbor who bought one in fall 2008 only used his once, for some slop. We havent had to really shovel any snow this "winter". Better investment is to pay the local kids $40-$60 to clear out the driveway once every 3 years...

My John Deere has been sitting in my shed for two winters now. That being said, I don’t think snowblowers were really pushed in the market during the 80’s and 90’s. I feel society was more of a “do it yourself attitude” back then. I remember in the 90’s once the snow stopped army’s of family’s with shovels at every house. 
 

In the 2000s the snowblowers have become more homeowner friendly, people have become lazy, and kids rather play Xbox.

47 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Straight giggity on that run.  

Not even done at 90 hours... solid foot there.  

This is a great pattern for you. The picnic tables will be buried for a while. Active storm track with normal temps in NNE. 

44 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

GFS has a cold bias in the LR so that's why we get these cold/snowy runs that never verify

Some of the ens are hinting at the boundary slipping south of our area after the 15th. The Pv will be in a better position and the AO dropping from uber strength. We get a better cold press and knock the southeast ridge down in return. Do we believe it? I wouldn’t bet my house on it....

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

How can this same pattern last so long ?

Because the mjo keeps dying and reforming in 4/5/6. Only way we get into some type of snowy pattern is if the Pv weakens or gets into a better position