Allsnow

28 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Verbatim dry slot crushing nyc crowd, just after the wind blown rain deluge.  

Why do you wish for such things? Lol 

jk btw

Looks like another wild swing in temperatures next week. With warm weather on Wednesday and a arctic chill to end the week. 

Ensembles are starting to point to better h5 set up during the last week of February. The Pv is weakening and we get into the colder phases of the mjo. We shall see if this moves closer in time or just one last head fake before spring 

The sun feels hot today! This disaster of a winter is almost over 

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

@Allsnow @bluewave A +4 sigma NAM index on the last week of February....I think we’re cooked into early March and at that point, you really only have the first 15 days to make something happen:  https://twitter.com/SimonLeeWx/status/1227541123155005441?s=20 

We just going to need and wait and see. The stats @donsutherland1 are posting definitely don’t inspire confidence on any snow going forward. That being said, after the 25th I think we will have a better shot of threading the needle. By no means is that a endorsement to gas the snowblowers up lol. But yes, I think March will mainly be a continuation of what we have now. Warm/wet.

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That one actually began with the start warming event on February 10th. But it took about 3 weeks to flip the pattern for us. In the mean time we had the record 80 degree warmth. Last March we got lucky when the -EPO developed.

Yeah, we had a snowy 1st weekend of March with that -epo. 

Sun! 

37 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea, it sucks how we are getting to the numbers this season. It’s like a hitter batting .260 in July for the season after a .400 April. 

Yep. It’s obviously personal preference on how you get to normal snowfall. You can do it all in one shot (nice to have that luxury on the east coast) or nickel and dime your way. Kord(Chicago) is crawling its way to avg snowfall with numerous little events. It’s greatest 24 hours snowfall was 3 inche back on October 31st lol. The seasonal total so far is 21 inches with that being 2 inches below normal. 
 

26 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

NNE can afford to have the warm winters though and still snow.  Up here it was +7 in January at MVL but the average high temp was still below freezing.  We do start to lose that luxury soon though as climo normals start ticking upward.  

Warmer temps often mean a storm track nearby too in NNE as the seasonal baroclinic zone that normally pushes south into the mid-Atlantic ends up staying  more like over SNE.  There has literally been like no suppression depression storms for us, when usually there’s at least a few that we smoke dim sum cirrus...or even just have a sunny day while it snows in NYC.

 

Absolutely. Usually if it is warm down here you guys are cashing in up there. It also helps that your avg temps are so cold during peak winter. You can be +10 for the day and still be in some CCB magic. The ensembles did well with forecasting this gradient look for the month of February. More often the not your area will be a winter wonderland. 

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

BDL is at normal snows to this point lol. While it has been very bad with practically nothing to show for from mid Dec onwards...the numbers are what they are. It’s Definitely not 1 in 100/200 year type ratter. Put the tequila away during the day.

Reminds me of Knyc in 2016. 
 

How about Caribou, Maine with its 4th warmest winter and still with over 100 inches of snow. Must be nice sigh 

Don’t worry crew Cansips look great for January 2021 lol

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Huh? I hate terrorists, domestic and international. Christian, muslim, hindu, whatever. I guess that make me a bad person because I hate violence? Crucify me then, please. 

Nikonman32 joined 22 minutes ago, you’re taking the bait.

25 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

You dont see any signs of improvements towards the end of the month ?

Mjo looks to improve but the Ao and Pv are still way to strong. It could not be a improvement even if we are in the cold phases. Just need to wait and see. I think if we do get anything it will be in the first week of March. 

Then back to the regular schedule program 

This will probably be the first and last shot of arctic air for the 2020 winter. 
 

35 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Die hard weenies will never close the  blinds in mid February 

 

We salute you!

BTW I’m glad everyone of your coworkers are okay. The system is truly backwards unfortunately. Be safe out there.

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

And somehow only 3" of precip has fallen since Jan 1st

We should double that in the next few weeks...ugh 

17 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

Only hope from the EURO Weeklies would be the days in and around Feb. 28---Mar. 08.    

Remember that even if we had Moscow's January here last month, we would have still have been AN last month.      They apparently finished with a 33* Average, when about 15* is normal.    Their December 2019 beat our December 2015-----they made it a +14, ours was +13.3.

Yep. Looks like the weeklies have less of a Niña look around then. 

This will go down as one of the worst winters of my lifetime. Just endless rain and mild weather. I can’t get over the lack of cold weather. It has literally been March here for the last three months. It most definitely can’t get any worse IMBY next winter. So I guess there is that...

13 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Yep. I wont put much stock into a clown map for 4 inches until I have 3.9" otg. 

This does have some positives going for it around the Chicago area. It will be coming Wednesday night with a better airmass in front of it. A good amount of the guidance overnight trended weaker with the northern stream which helped with a snowier trend. 
 

Eps snow mean 

3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The ECMWF has taken a step toward the GEFS, as it now brings the MJO into Phase 6 at an amplitude  of 1.000 or above.

Roundy plots have it collapsing in 6/7 then a new wave forming in p1/2. We also have a Kelvin wave in p8. 

11 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Mjo on the euro is still different than the gefs. Gefs takes into 7.

 

That looks accurate IMO. Roundy plots have the mjo collapsing on the boarder of 6/7 and then a wave forming in 1/2. Would support a window for something in late February and early March. This was a timeframe that was pointed out by @40/70 Benchmark

Until then rain for us metfan. I’m here to bring you back to our forum. 

11 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

 

Thanks, Tim. I am happy re the outlook; and it would certainly be nice to see an areawide event prior to the end of the season. I still do believe there will be amelioration near the end of February into March, from hostile to more mediocre. I don't see any indications of a great pattern at this juncture, but all we would need is something serviceable to produce a plowable event in Feb 25-Mar 10, which is still favorable climatology. Post Mar 10 is when probabilities begin decreasing expeditiously. 

Agree. Normally by March 15th it’s over for the metro outside a fluke event. I agree, (I believe you think the mjo will help) that we could see a better pac to start March. We would still have other issues but it would make the pattern more serviceable.