Allsnow
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Everything posted by Allsnow
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Weak and fast flow is the only way we have a chance to snow in the metro. This might be one of those situations where it works out for us -
The lower hgts are in Ak not south of the Aleutians
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Yup. We have had a p6 response the last two weeks. It’s not close to p5 in November. The only reason we are going away from that look is because the pna is tanking
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Yeah, but the p5 composite for Niña November isn’t the pattern we had. It was closer to a p6 response for December. Why do you think the west has been so warm and snowless the past few weeks? We have had a ridge in that area
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Yeah, but the last two weeks has been a western ridge with Nw flow in the east. Which is the exact composite of p6 December in Niña. You have have convection in both p5/6. Go look at p5 Niña composite for November? It’s not the pattern we have had. The only reason we are getting away from the p6 look is because of the pna going Uber negative
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Huh? The last two weeks have been that composite to a T. We have had a ridge out west with Lower hgts in Ak. This is why the west has been snowless and warm.
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Gfs flatter and snowier for the metro
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Yeah, what a Micro climate that place is….
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With that being said, next weekend through the 20th looks very torchy.
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Mjo looks to be heading into 7-8 by months end. The orl maps has it in those phases with strength. It probably what we will need to shake up the pacific. This isn’t like 11-12 or19-20 with a vortex in Ak. It’s the poor pacific and lower hgts in Ak that will keep things mild
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Eps pops a -epo for next week and the conus is flooded with artic air. We still warm up after that but this might limit the duration of the warm up
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We have the confluence from the departing cutter along with a good shot of cold air. Do I think this will trend north, yes, but I don’t think we need a miracle in the metro to snow next week. If we keep the sw energy weak it most definitely can happen.
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Perhaps we sneak a snow event in before the warm next weekend. EPS idv were snowy overnight for next Wednesday
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December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas
Allsnow replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in New England
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23F
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26 already
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Yeah this would be p7 December in Niña
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Yeah, I can see us getting into 7 but will have a hard time getting into p8. We need that pac to reshuffle because all we are getting now is a nw flow with cool air because of the lower hgts in ak
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Weeklies hinting at a -epo change around mid month. Perhaps with some jet retraction and strat help it might have some merit
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Light snow here currently
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Because normally the Niña stacks warm water in the mjo cold phases for March. P3-4-5
