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Allsnow

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Everything posted by Allsnow

  1. Eps really trending better in the 11-15 day. Stronger -nao which is muting the -pna.
  2. I’m not sure why someone would forecast a weak SPV when it typically gains strength in December. Typical Niña climo usually has December the best month for cold/snow. But lately none of these typical base state normalities seem to be working out
  3. Bdr -1.7 Nyc -1.8 sensor covered by leaf pile JFK -0.5 Lga -0.3 Teteboro -2.6
  4. November finished below normal at all the climate stations
  5. 70’s in nj? Highest I see is 64
  6. We still don’t if the mjo will be enough to flip the pattern. It’s a very strong wave so their is reasonable hope for it. But unfortunately the mjo isn’t the only factor currently
  7. The olr maps are more accurate and have p7 around Christmas then p8-1 to end the year into 2022
  8. Those rmm plots chase convection. We are still currently in p6
  9. Phase 7 effects won’t be felt until closer to Christmas. Any phase 8 impacts will be after xmass. The only wildcard is some strat hits on the Pv around the 20th that could help with a cold shot in that timeframe.
  10. Need to continue to see trends of the pna relaxing. Nice trend in that area over the last few ensemble runs
  11. Eps overnight was hinting at some front end snows for the 20th
  12. Nam keeps temps in the upper 50’s/low 60’s today.
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