The typhoon really slowed the progression of the mjo. Probably won’t be until the new year we get into p7. Hopefully we can get a pac reshuffle but the ensembles have definitely been can kicking it
Looks good for most of January. Even though blocking breaks down the pv lobe sits near Hudson Bay. By February (way out in time) we go back to the Niña look we have now
Yeah, if we get to mid January and still stuck in the same h5 set up we are probably in trouble. At that point We would probably need a ssw to save us lol. As of now, I don’t think it’s time to Panic
The last cold December in nyc was 2017. The lowest high temperature was 18 and the lowest low was 9. The month final departure was -4
NYE 2017 was -20 for the daily departure
That’s a incredible block showing up on a day 11-15 mean (obviously it starts way earlier then that) but the fact that it will still be there in January as the pac improves is a great sign. I still think we wait until closer to NYD for our first threat but perhaps something works before then.
But I don’t think we had blocking in 07-08. With blocking and moving the pna out into the Rockies would give us a better chance. We would definitely risk cutters but the opportunity would be better then 07/08
Ha. I love how you find tweets from random people to fit your agenda in hopes Don s or bluewave acknowledge it. You get all giddy when they stop talking about how warm dodge city Ks got and focus on you…
Agree. I’m more optimistic to start January down here but can’t rule something out with that block. You guys will get started earlier then that. I think the tweet sums up what @CoastalWx was saying this morning…