I thought the ensembles did a good job for the first week of March. It was always supposed to be cold and dry. We are to deep into the trough then the epo reloads for second week of March. The first weekend in March imo was always a warm risk with cutter.
Because the models keep trying to bring the mjo out of P3/4 but the convection isn’t moving. We probably see a cooler second half of March with Pv destruction and cooler mjo phases