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Allsnow

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  1. Allsnow
    Upton new AFD basically agrees with your thoughts. This is a none event for the coast and nyc. NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... A warm front remains to our south associated with a low over the Carolinas. The low is expected to track to the north and west, bringing the warm front closer tonight. A small wave of light showers/drizzle is expected to trek across our eastern areas this evening, but is looking a lot less than in previous model runs. Cloud cover remains persistent into tonight due to the warm from providing ample lift to our south. Moisture will increase overnight from south to north with the warm front's approach, leading to areas of fog early Friday morning and increasing precip chances. Overnight should steer clear of any widespread precip before Friday. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... A closed upper low tracks into the Ohio Valley on Friday, while at the surface, a warm front lifts through the region. The day likely begins on the showery side as the warm front moves through. Dew points rise into the upper 60 to near 70 with southerly flow developing post fropa in the morning. Most showers and thunderstorms look to occur west of our area, with interior locations having a better chance of precip than coastal locations. The warm front should still provide enough lift to produce intermittent light to moderate showers. The risk for excessive rainfall has been shifted inland away from our area as most of the forecasted heavier precip has trended in that direction. PWATs from multiple CAMs still bump up into the 1.8-2" threshold, which would be near the max moving average of 2" for this time of year. Due to this, rain chances still reach likely thresholds for tomorrow. NBM continues to overdo precip for Friday, just like it did today, so I stuck closer to our CONSALL guidance for rain chances Friday, with some hand edits. Temperatures will be warmer than Thursday with the region lying in the warm sector, though still below normal values for late June. Highs top out in the mid 70s for most, and remain mild overnight into Saturday morning. Stuck close to NBM guidance for temperatures. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Weak low pressure at the surface and frontal boundaries near the forecast area this weekend will provide enough lift needed for showers and thunderstorms to develop over the weekend. A weak upper trough weakens as it moves toward the area from the west. However, models have backed off on any widespread precipitation, and given the poor performance of the models over the past couple of cycles in regards to the recent rain, or lack thereof, any confidence in heavy rainfall is low. Any heavy rain this weekend looks to be isolated, with higher chances of occurring mainly north and west of New York City. The NBM shows just under a 20% chance of 1.00" of rainfall in 24 hours for KJFK. Additionally, slightly lower PWAT values are noted in the deterministic models, though peak values are still around 2.00" across the area. So, while the overall average precipitation for the weekend is lower, any heavy shower or thunderstorm could still produce close to 2.00" of rainfall. But again, the more likely place for this would be areas north and west. Another cutoff develops over the central Great Lakes region Sunday night into Monday. This cutoff low, along with its associated frontal boundaries and upper trough will continue the chances for precipitation for the beginning through the middle of next week as it slowly moves east. This time frame appears to be a better chance for heavier rain, but again, with the poor performance with the models, it is low confidence at this point.
  2. Allsnow
    It won’t be raining 100% of the time. I think Sunday ends up better then expected
  3. Allsnow
  4. Allsnow
    Come Wednesday the euro has a total of 3-5 inches around the metro but that’s very hard to believe. It’s just the Global’s having a hard time forecasting convection
  5. Allsnow
    If I knew this was the eventual outcome (not sure why I expected differently) I would have preferred hot sunny weather over this garbage for days. It’s still cool outside with very little humidity
  6. Allsnow
    Euro doesn’t have much until Saturday evening. The stuff on Sunday looks scattered and could easily dry up.
  7. Allsnow
    Thoughts on this rain potential?
  8. Allsnow
    Gfs less then .5 by Monday now. I’m very skeptical of these 3-4 inch amounts by next week.
  9. Allsnow
    Where is all the rain?
  10. Allsnow
    Everything west of us haha
  11. Allsnow
    This was so predictable….another rain event the models loose inside 24 hours. Didn’t get enough mist to even wet the ground here
  12. Allsnow
    I doubt we get the 3-4 these global models have for us by next week. I might need to water today if we don’t get anything
  13. Allsnow
    Looks like no rain until tomorrow
  14. Allsnow
    Nothing for tomorrow now. On to the next disappointment
  15. Allsnow
    Coolest June since 2009. Just not as wet which has hurt the lawns
  16. Allsnow
    66 for a high on the first day of summer
  17. Allsnow
    Brutal. Looks like another miss for us
  18. Allsnow
    Yup. .25 or less
  19. Allsnow
    I completely understand. My ideal spot would be by Watertown,NY. You get the lake effect and system snow. Rarely do they get a setup they can’t snow in
  20. Allsnow
    @winterwx21 and @Stormlover74 hopefully this doesn’t disappoint
  21. Allsnow
    Move to the snow….
  22. Allsnow
  23. Allsnow
    Weather bell down for anyone?
  24. Allsnow
    More tornadoes then inches of snow this year
  25. Allsnow
    I can see LI getting a storm tomorrow afternoon but west of nyc is skunked
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