Upton new AFD basically agrees with your thoughts. This is a none event for the coast and nyc.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A warm front remains to our south associated with a low over the
Carolinas. The low is expected to track to the north and west,
bringing the warm front closer tonight. A small wave of light
showers/drizzle is expected to trek across our eastern areas this
evening, but is looking a lot less than in previous model runs.
Cloud cover remains persistent into tonight due to the warm from
providing ample lift to our south. Moisture will increase overnight
from south to north with the warm front's approach, leading to areas
of fog early Friday morning and increasing precip chances. Overnight
should steer clear of any widespread precip before Friday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A closed upper low tracks into the Ohio Valley on Friday, while at
the surface, a warm front lifts through the region. The day likely
begins on the showery side as the warm front moves through. Dew
points rise into the upper 60 to near 70 with southerly flow
developing post fropa in the morning. Most showers and thunderstorms
look to occur west of our area, with interior locations having a
better chance of precip than coastal locations. The warm front
should still provide enough lift to produce intermittent light to
moderate showers. The risk for excessive rainfall has been shifted
inland away from our area as most of the forecasted heavier precip
has trended in that direction. PWATs from multiple CAMs still bump
up into the 1.8-2" threshold, which would be near the max moving
average of 2" for this time of year. Due to this, rain chances still
reach likely thresholds for tomorrow. NBM continues to overdo precip
for Friday, just like it did today, so I stuck closer to our CONSALL
guidance for rain chances Friday, with some hand edits.
Temperatures will be warmer than Thursday with the region lying in
the warm sector, though still below normal values for late June.
Highs top out in the mid 70s for most, and remain mild overnight
into Saturday morning. Stuck close to NBM guidance for
temperatures.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Weak low pressure at the surface and frontal boundaries near the
forecast area this weekend will provide enough lift needed for
showers and thunderstorms to develop over the weekend. A weak upper
trough weakens as it moves toward the area from the west. However,
models have backed off on any widespread precipitation, and given
the poor performance of the models over the past couple of cycles in
regards to the recent rain, or lack thereof, any confidence in heavy
rainfall is low. Any heavy rain this weekend looks to be isolated,
with higher chances of occurring mainly north and west of New York
City. The NBM shows just under a 20% chance of 1.00" of rainfall in
24 hours for KJFK. Additionally, slightly lower PWAT values are
noted in the deterministic models, though peak values are still
around 2.00" across the area. So, while the overall average
precipitation for the weekend is lower, any heavy shower or
thunderstorm could still produce close to 2.00" of rainfall. But
again, the more likely place for this would be areas north and west.
Another cutoff develops over the central Great Lakes region Sunday
night into Monday. This cutoff low, along with its associated
frontal boundaries and upper trough will continue the chances for
precipitation for the beginning through the middle of next week as
it slowly moves east. This time frame appears to be a better chance
for heavier rain, but again, with the poor performance with the
models, it is low confidence at this point.
