The jet ext killed any response in the colder phases. Plus it’s not very strong. P1 Nino December actually looks like what week 1 of January is forecasted to be
It makes sense giving the mjo going into p3 that we see pna improvements. Sometimes their is a lag time with the response by I like closer to the 15th.
@psuhoffman I agree with him on the idea if we revert back to a Nina look it’s most likely over. We don’t have time to recover from that and the strong Nino didn’t help the base state
Agreed. I had hope for the first two weeks of the months but the cold Is just not established yet…
I hope this is the start of the changes we need for the second half of January
All we are saying is if we get to 1/15 and still not tracking a legit threat or see changes a few days away it’s time to punt this winter .
Yes, we can get one storm in February but by that point the chances of a huge cold/snowy winter are over
I feel like it gets lots of talk when we are in a mild/snowless winter. It’s usually brought up as one last ditch effort to justify a seasonal outlook or snowy turnaround.
Your location will have chances as long as the -pna doesn’t go crazy. Last few years that feature has trended stronger as we have gotten closer. Hopefully this is different
Thanks. Hopefully improvements out west around mid month once the wave fully enters p3. In the meantime it does look like Canada will finally start to cool off.
p3 January