Allsnow
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Everything posted by Allsnow
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The sne forum will go south once they realize the storm next week is rain and it’s 55 on Dec 20th
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Yeah, lots of people expecting this big turnaround by mid month with cold but I don’t see it. We loose the nao and the jet ext continues with poor mjo phases. The mjo doesn’t race through the warm phases and the warm water isn’t where we want it.
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NWS discontinued issuing freeze warnings because the growing season ended for the majority of the area
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That will be our two day artic outbreak around Christmas before the pac goes to crap again haha
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Huh? We are starting the month warm
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@bluewave what do u think it will take to get another 13-14 type winter regarding temps?
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The -nao will prevent us from really torching to start the month. It will be above normal but it would have been torching without a -nao
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If we still have conflicting signals (Nina forcing) it most certainly can happen
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That’s what happened in 2019 during late January into February
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Nina conditions
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That why I think the late December window will favor the west. P7 in December favors cold dump into the west. Those silly RMM plots had it going into cod which isn’t going to happen with that warm water in 4-7
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@bluewave has been killing the medium range the past few years.
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Not jumping ship, but we are starting to see some of the same issues that have plagued us the past few winters. More concerning IMO is the cold air/TPV going to the other side of the globe which kills our cold air source. Will take a while to cool Canada again
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The MJO wave works like a training thunderstorm in the summer. Very hard to predict and feeds off warm water which can keep is lingering in the warm phases
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Yeah but it regains strength, which needs to be watched if it recovers even stronger like December 2019
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I have zero confidence the MJO will move quickly in any phase other than the cold ones. All the warm water is where we don’t want it…
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Yeah, the jet ext is killing whatever brief window of favorable pac we get as the block moves southwest. This is so reminiscent of the past few Decembers it’s scary. In winters past once the jet retracts the -epo pops to far west to favor cold in the east. This could be the case again for the second half of the month if the mjo slows in the warm phases, which is why I didn’t understand why people expected it to race through
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No cold at all on our side of the globe on the entire eps run last night. The pac improvements around mid month are very brief as we go back to the same -pna look…
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Glad this isn’t snow
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@MJO812 patience we have blocking
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Yup. 2019 we ended up with a La Niña February even with a favorable mjo. We got most of our snow in March that season
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Last year we got nothing so it can’t be worst
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@bluewave you’re absolutely slaying this forum currently. I see you got everyone bothered because you are providing evidence of another mild/snowless winter in the enso thread I do agree, hopefully we catch a rouge event in February
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@bluewave has been very accurate with his mid range predictions the past few years. When he starts to talk cold and snow then it just might be coming.
