Your post stated “this has been the pattern in recent years” we haven’t had an active stj in recent years.
we have been in a Nina with strong northern jet and se ridge the last few winters
That not the H5 map for early January
The trough in the west is not supported by the mjo from p1-3. Yes, perhaps they look comes but imo I think it’s being rushed. OLR has lots of dry air in p7 out until to the 11-15 day