All we are saying is if we get to 1/15 and still not tracking a legit threat or see changes a few days away it’s time to punt this winter .
Yes, we can get one storm in February but by that point the chances of a huge cold/snowy winter are over
I feel like it gets lots of talk when we are in a mild/snowless winter. It’s usually brought up as one last ditch effort to justify a seasonal outlook or snowy turnaround.
Your location will have chances as long as the -pna doesn’t go crazy. Last few years that feature has trended stronger as we have gotten closer. Hopefully this is different
Thanks. Hopefully improvements out west around mid month once the wave fully enters p3. In the meantime it does look like Canada will finally start to cool off.
p3 January
Wow. Where does +6.7 at ORH rank for warmest December on record?
crazy, orh is not forecasted to be below frz until Sunday morning and it will only be 30
I think we see improvements out west when the mjo get into p3. Unfortunately, that might take until mid month. Second week of January looks like a -pna with cold dumping west
First threat or model run of interest will probably start around the 5/6th. I agree, by the 15th if we are still reading posts from metfan about how the pattern is changing this winter is most likely a punt